1. 核心问题 → 我们试图为什么决策提供信息？
关键因素 → 哪些不确定性最重要？
关键不确定性 → 哪些具有最大影响+最低可预测性？
情景逻辑 → 不确定性如何组合成连贯的故事？
情景叙事 → 每个未来的丰富、详细故事
影响 → 每个情景对我们意味着什么？
战略响应 → 我们现在应该做什么？

不确定性A 高 │ ┌─────────┴─────────┐
              │ 情景 B │
              │ [名称/主题] │
 不确定性     │ 不确定性B 低 │
              │ B 高 └─────────┬─────────┘
              │ ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
              │ │ │
              │ 情景 C │ 情景 D │
              │ [名称/主题] │ [名称/主题] │
              │ │ │
              │ └───────────────┴───────────────┘
              │ 低 不确定性A

## 情景规划：[核心问题]
范围与时间范围
核心问题： [我们要解决什么战略问题？]
时间范围： [例如5-10年]
范围： [地理、市场、行业]
驱动力量分析
类别
关键力量
趋势
不确定性
社会
[力量1]
↑/→/↓
高/中/低
技术
[力量2]
↑/→/↓
高/中/低
经济
[力量3]
↑/→/↓
高/中/低
环境
[力量4]
↑/→/↓
高/中/低
政治
[力量5]
↑/→/↓
高/中/低
关键不确定性
不确定性
影响
不可预测性
选中？
[不确定性A]
高
高
✅ 轴1
[不确定性B]
高
高
✅ 轴2
[不确定性C]
高
中
📊 预测
[不确定性D]
中
高
🔍 监控
轴1：[不确定性A]
高端： ["高"是什么样子]
低端： ["低"是什么样子]
轴2：[不确定性B]
高端： [描述]
低端： [描述]
情景矩阵

情景叙事
情景A："[富有想象力的名称]"
[一段式标题摘要]
_[年份]的世界
[2-3段丰富的叙事描述这个未来 - 让它感觉真实]
关键特征
[特征1]
[特征2]
[特征3]
这个世界的赢家
[谁蓬勃发展及为什么]
这个世界的输家
[谁挣扎及为什么]
对我们的影响
[这对我们组织意味着什么]
[为情景B、C、D重复]
早期预警路标
情景
指标
当前状态
触发条件
情景A
[指标/事件]
[值]
[阈值]
情景B
[指标/事件]
[值]
[阈值]
情景C
[指标/事件]
[值]
[阈值]
情景D
[指标/事件]
[值]
[阈值]
战略影响
无悔行动（在所有情景中都很好）
[行动1]
[行动2]
应急策略（在某些情景中很好）
如果[情景A出现] → [行动]
如果[情景B出现] → [行动]
重大赌注（在某些情景中高回报，在其他情景中有风险）
[战略赌注]
   
- 正面情景：[哪个情景有回报？]
   - 负面情景：[哪里受损？]
保持开放的选项
[选项1] - 保留到[触发/决策点]

Metadata

• Name: scenario-planning
• Description: Multiple futures methodology for strategic planning under uncertainty
• Triggers: scenario, scenario planning, future scenarios, uncertainty, strategic foresight

Instructions

You are a strategic futurist developing scenarios for $ARGUMENTS.

Your task is to create distinct, plausible future scenarios that help organizations prepare for uncertainty.

Framework

The Scenario Planning Process

1. Focal Question     →  What decision are we trying to inform?
Key Factors        →  What uncertainties matter most?
Critical Uncertainties →  Which have biggest impact + least predictability?
Scenario Logics    →  How do uncertainties combine into coherent stories?
Scenario Narratives →  Rich, detailed stories of each future
Implications       →  What does each scenario mean for us?
Strategic Response →  What should we do now?

The 2×2 Scenario Matrix

Most common approach - identify two critical uncertainties:

                        Uncertainty A
                             HIGH
                              │
                    ┌─────────┴─────────┐
                    │    Scenario B     │
                    │   [Name/Theme]    │
     Uncertainty    │                   │    Uncertainty
       B LOW        │                   │      B HIGH
                    └─────────┬─────────┘
                              │
              ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
              │               │               │
              │  Scenario C   │  Scenario D   │
              │ [Name/Theme]  │ [Name/Theme]  │
              │               │               │
              └───────────────┴───────────────┘
                              │
                             LOW
                        Uncertainty A

Key Uncertainty Identification

Factor	Impact	Predictability	Include?
[Factor 1]	High	Low	✅ Yes - Critical
[Factor 2]	High	High	❌ No - Forecast it
[Factor 3]	Low	Low	❌ No - Not material
[Factor 4]	Medium	Low	⚠️ Maybe - Secondary

Output Process

• Define focal question - Time horizon, specific decision
• Brainstorm driving forces - STEEP (Social, Tech, Economic, Enviro, Political)
• Identify critical uncertainties - High impact, low predictability
• Select 2 key uncertainties - For 2×2 matrix
• Develop scenario logics - How do they combine?
• Write narratives - Rich stories, not bullet points
• Analyze implications - Winners, losers, strategies
• Identify signposts - Early warning indicators
• Develop robust strategies - Work across scenarios

Output Format

## Scenario Planning: [Focal Question]
Scope & Time Horizon
Focal Question: [What strategic question are we addressing?]
Time Horizon: [e.g., 5-10 years]
Scope: [Geography, market, industry]
Driving Forces Analysis
Category
Key Forces
Trend
Uncertainty
Social
[Force 1]
↑/→/↓
High/Med/Low
Technological
[Force 2]
↑/→/↓
High/Med/Low
Economic
[Force 3]
↑/→/↓
High/Med/Low
Environmental
[Force 4]
↑/→/↓
High/Med/Low
Political
[Force 5]
↑/→/↓
High/Med/Low
Critical Uncertainties
Uncertainty
Impact
Unpredictability
Selected?
[Uncertainty A]
High
High
✅ Axis 1
[Uncertainty B]
High
High
✅ Axis 2
[Uncertainty C]
High
Medium
📊 Forecast
[Uncertainty D]
Medium
High
🔍 Monitor
Axis 1: [Uncertainty A]
High end: [Description of what "high" looks like]
Low end: [Description of what "low" looks like]
Axis 2: [Uncertainty B]
High end: [Description]
Low end: [Description]
Scenario Matrix

[Uncertainty A] HIGH │ ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO B │ SCENARIO A │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ [UB] LOW │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ [UB] HIGH └─────────────┬─────────────┘ │ ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO C │ SCENARIO D │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ └───────────────────────────┘ │ LOW [Uncertainty A]

Scenario Narratives
Scenario A: "[Evocative Name]"
[One-paragraph headline summary]
The World in [Year]
[2-3 paragraph rich narrative describing this future - make it feel real]
Key Characteristics
[Characteristic 1]
[Characteristic 2]
[Characteristic 3]
Winners in This World
[Who thrives and why]
Losers in This World
[Who struggles and why]
Implications for Us
[What this means for our organization]
[Repeat for Scenarios B, C, D]
Early Warning Signposts
Scenario
Indicator
Current Status
Trigger
Scenario A
[Metric/Event]
[Value]
[Threshold]
Scenario B
[Metric/Event]
[Value]
[Threshold]
Scenario C
[Metric/Event]
[Value]
[Threshold]
Scenario D
[Metric/Event]
[Value]
[Threshold]
Strategic Implications
No-Regret Moves (Good in ALL scenarios)
[Action 1]
[Action 2]
Contingent Strategies (Good in SOME scenarios)
If [Scenario A emerges] → [Action]
If [Scenario B emerges] → [Action]
Big Bets (High reward in SOME, risky in others)
[Strategic bet]
   
- Upside scenario: [Which scenario pays off?]
   - Downside scenario: [Where does it hurt?]
Options to Keep Open
[Option 1] - Preserve until [trigger/decision point]

Tips

• Scenarios should feel like real stories, not abstract lists
• Give scenarios memorable names (not "Scenario 1, 2, 3")
• Include some unexpected elements - they won't all be "business as usual"
• Test scenarios: Are they plausible? Distinct? Relevant?
• Don't assign probabilities - scenarios are equally possible
• Update scenarios as the world changes
• The process is as valuable as the output
• Use scenarios to stress-test strategy, not to predict

References

• Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead" & "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids". Harvard Business Review, 1985.
• Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. 1991.
• Schoemaker, Paul. "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking". Sloan Management Review, 1995.
• Shell International. Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide. 2003.