用户：「基于当前数据预测下季度销售额」
→ 使用 scripts/forecast_trend.py --metric "sales" --period Q2 --data "historical.csv"
→ 构建具有置信区间和关键假设的预测

用户：「这个项目有哪些可能的场景？」
→ 使用 scripts/generate_scenarios.py --project "X" --factors "budget,timeline,resources"
→ 创建最佳情况、最差情况和最可能的情况

用户：「评估这个商业决策的风险」
→ 使用 scripts/assess_risk.py --decision "expansion" --factors "market,competition,capital"
→ 识别风险，评估概率，制定缓解策略

用户：「成功的概率是多少？」
→ 使用 scripts/evaluate_probability.py --outcome "success" --factors "team,market,timing"
→ 计算具有明确推理和置信水平的概率

Prediction system. See patterns, forecast outcomes, manage uncertainty.

Critical Privacy & Safety

Data Storage (CRITICAL)

• All prediction data stored locally only: memory/predict/
• No external prediction APIs with data sharing
• Scenario analyses remain private
• Risk assessments confidential
• User controls all data retention and deletion

Important Note

Predictions are inherently uncertain. This skill provides structured analysis but does not guarantee outcomes. Always maintain appropriate uncertainty and update predictions as new information emerges.

Data Structure

Prediction data stored locally:

• memory/predict/models.json - Prediction models and frameworks
• memory/predict/scenarios.json - Scenario analyses
• memory/predict/forecasts.json - Forecast records
• memory/predict/accuracy.json - Prediction accuracy tracking

Core Workflows

Forecast Trend

User: "Forecast sales for next quarter based on current data"
→ Use scripts/forecast_trend.py --metric "sales" --period Q2 --data "historical.csv"
→ Build forecast with confidence intervals and key assumptions

Generate Scenarios

User: "What are possible scenarios for this project?"
→ Use scripts/generate_scenarios.py --project "X" --factors "budget,timeline,resources"
→ Create best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios

Assess Risk

User: "Assess risks for this business decision"
→ Use scripts/assess_risk.py --decision "expansion" --factors "market,competition,capital"
→ Identify risks, evaluate probabilities, develop mitigation strategies

Evaluate Probability

User: "What's the probability of success?"
→ Use scripts/evaluate_probability.py --outcome "success" --factors "team,market,timing"
→ Calculate probability with explicit reasoning and confidence levels

Module Reference

• Trend Analysis: See references/trends.md
• Forecasting Methods: See references/forecasting.md
• Scenario Planning: See references/scenarios.md
• Risk Assessment: See references/risk.md
• Probability Evaluation: See references/probability.md

Scripts Reference

Script	Purpose
forecast_trend.py	Forecast future trends
generate_scenarios.py	Generate future scenarios
assess_risk.py	Assess decision risks
evaluate_probability.py	Evaluate outcome probabilities
track_accuracy.py	Track prediction accuracy
build_model.py	Build prediction models