多市场天气交易机器人
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使用 NOAA 预报数据在多市场上交易温度市场。 > 这是一个模板。 默认信号是 NOAA 温度预报 — 可以 remix 以使用其他天气 API、不同的预报模型或额外的市场类型（降水、风等）。技能处理所有管道（市场发现、NOAA 解析、交易执行、防护）。您的代理提供 alpha。
何时使用此技能
- 自动交易天气市场
- 设置 gopfan2 风格温度交易
- 根据天气预测买低卖高
- 检查天气交易位置
- 配置交易阈值或位置
...（由于字符限制，完整的 SKILL.md 中文翻译未全部显示，请根据需要补充）
Trade temperature markets on Polymarket using NOAA forecast data.
This is a template. The default signal is NOAA temperature forecasts — remix it with other weather APIs, different forecast models, or additional market types (precipitation, wind, etc.). The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, NOAA parsing, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
When to Use This Skill
Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Trade weather markets automatically
- Set up gopfan2-style temperature trading
- Buy low on weather predictions
- Check their weather trading positions
- Configure trading thresholds or locations
What's New in v1.14.0
- Fixed env var names to match autotune registry (old names still work as aliases):
-
SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY →
SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY_THRESHOLD
-
SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT →
SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD
-
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION →
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD
-
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES →
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN
- New tunable:
SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX — adjustable slippage safeguard (default 15%). Set higher for research mode on illiquid markets.
- New tunable:
SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_LIQUIDITY — skip markets with liquidity below this USD threshold (default 0 = disabled). Pre-filters thin markets before execution.
SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS and SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY now exposed as autotune tunables.
v1.13.0
- Binary Only Mode: New
SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY config to skip range-bucket events (e.g., "NYC 34-35°F") and only trade binary yes/no weather markets
v1.2.0
- Max Trades Per Run: New
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES config to limit trades per scan cycle (default: 5)
v1.1.1
- Status Script: New
scripts/status.py for quick balance and position checks
- API Reference: Added Quick Commands section with API endpoints
v1.1.0
- Source Tagging: All trades tagged with
sdk:weather for portfolio tracking
- Smart Sizing: Position sizing based on available balance (
--smart-sizing)
- Context Safeguards: Checks for flip-flop warnings, slippage, time decay
- Price Trend Detection: Detects recent price drops for stronger signals
Setup Flow
When user asks to install or configure this skill:
- They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
- Store in environment as
SIMMER_API_KEY- Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)
- This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
- Store in environment as
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
- The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
- Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)
- Entry threshold: When to buy (default 15¢)
- Exit threshold: When to sell (default 45¢)
- Max position: Amount per trade (default $2.00)
- Locations: Which cities to trade (default NYC)
- Save settings to environment variables
- Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)
Configuration
| Setting | Environment Variable | Default | Description |
|---|
| Entry threshold | SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY_THRESHOLD | 0.15 | Buy when price below this |
| Exit threshold | SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell when price above this |
| Max position | SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD | 2.00 | Maximum USD per trade |
| Max trades/run | SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 5 | Maximum trades per scan cycle |
| Locations | SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS | NYC | Comma-separated cities (NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami) |
| Binary only | SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY | false | Skip range-bucket events (e.g., "34-35°F"), only trade binary yes/no markets |
| Smart sizing % | SIMMER_WEATHER_SIZING_PCT | 0.05 | % of balance per trade |
| Slippage max | SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Skip trades with slippage above this (0.15 = 15%) |
| Min liquidity | SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Skip markets with liquidity below this USD amount (0 = disabled) |
Legacy env var aliases (still accepted for backwards compatibility):
SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY,
SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT,
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION,
SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADESSupported locations: NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami
Quick Commands
# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions
API Reference:
- Base URL:
https://api.simmer.markets
- Auth:
Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
- Portfolio:
GET /api/sdk/portfolio
- Positions:
GET /api/sdk/positions
Running the Skill
# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python weather_trader.py# Execute real trades
python weather_trader.py --live
# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing
# Check positions only
python weather_trader.py --positions
# View config
python weather_trader.py --config
# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python weather_trader.py --no-safeguards
# Disable trend detection
python weather_trader.py --no-trends
# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for high-frequency runs)
python weather_trader.py --live --quiet
# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet
How It Works
Each cycle the script:
- Fetches active weather markets from Simmer API
- Groups markets by event (each temperature day is one event)
- Parses event names to get location and date
- Fetches NOAA forecast for that location/date
- Finds the temperature bucket that matches the forecast
- Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, time decay
- Trend Detection: Looks for recent price drops (stronger buy signal)
- Entry: If bucket price < threshold and safeguards pass → BUY
- Exit: Checks open positions, sells if price > exit threshold
- Tagging: All trades tagged with
sdk:weather for tracking
Smart Sizing
With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:
- 5% of available USDC balance (configurable via
SIMMER_WEATHER_SIZING_PCT)
- Capped at max position setting ($2.00 default)
- Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable
This prevents over-deployment and scales with your account size.
Safeguards
Before trading, the skill checks:
- Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
- Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%
- Time decay: Skips if market resolves in < 2 hours
- Market status: Skips if market already resolved
Disable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).
Source Tagging
All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:weather". This means:
- Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy
- Copytrading skill won't sell your weather positions
- You can track weather P&L separately
Example Output
🌤️ Simmer Weather Trading Skill
==================================================⚙️ Configuration:
Entry threshold: 15% (buy below this)
Exit threshold: 45% (sell above this)
Max position: $2.00
Locations: NYC
Smart sizing: ✓ Enabled
Safeguards: ✓ Enabled
Trend detection: ✓ Enabled
💰 Portfolio:
Balance: $150.00
Exposure: $45.00
Positions: 8
📍 NYC 2026-01-28 (high temp)
NOAA forecast: 34°F
Matching bucket: 34-35°F @ $0.12
💡 Smart sizing: $2.00 (capped at max position)
✅ Below threshold ($0.15) - BUY opportunity! 📉 (dropped 15% in 24h)
Executing trade...
✅ Bought 62.5 shares @ $0.12
📊 Summary:
Events scanned: 12
Entry opportunities: 1
Trades executed: 1
Troubleshooting
"Safeguard blocked: Severe flip-flop warning"
- You've been changing direction too much on this market
- Wait before trading again
"Slippage too high"
- Market is illiquid, reduce position size or skip
"Resolves in Xh - too soon"
- Market resolving soon, risk is elevated
"No weather markets found"
- Weather markets may not be active (seasonal)
"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment- The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
- Fix:
export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x
- Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it
"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"
- Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract
0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC
- If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
- Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry
"API key invalid"
- Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
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