Analytical Thinking — 分析性思维
v2026.5.17当用户要求进行分析性思考（包括明确提及或指示使用/应用/运行，尽管有明显的拼写错误；果断决策）或想要对问题进行结构化分解——将问题分解，定义指标和假设，组织证据，并合成研究结果同时明确不确定性时，使用此技能。适用于量化风格的推理框架，根因树，决策表或类似的结构，包括非正式或不完整的数据请求。跳过当用户想要开放式的想法集合而没有任何测量或假设角度，或者想要简短的判决而没有分解请求时。
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Analytical Thinking
Clarity beats cleverness. End with answers tied to structure and 状态d confidence.
How to 运行 it with this 技能: one clearly headed section per step in this order: Frame → Decompose → Hypotheses → Evidence → Synthesis. Insert Options matrix only when 设置up calls for it (after Evidence, before Synthesis).
设置up (运行 before 启动ing)
In one short block:
Analytical question — precise, ideally falsifiable Default pass — Frame → Decompose → Hypotheses → Evidence → Synthesis (状态 this line)
If data avAIlability or definitions are missing, ask at most 3 questions in one message, then proceed. Note any remAIning gaps or working guesses in plAIn language (no bracket tags in 设置up).
If the user is choosing among concrete alternatives, after Evidence insert Options matrix: rows = options, columns = criteria (状态 weights if any), qualitative scores (− / 0 / +) with one-line justification per cell — then finish with Synthesis.
The Steps Frame
Question type (estimate, compare, explAIn, predict, 优化). Unit of analysis and baseline (even if hypothetical).
Decompose
Tree or table: factors, drivers, or work流s. Each child node should be MECE-ish (mutually exclusive where it matters; collectively exhaustive enough for the decision).
Hypotheses
Ranked H1, H2, H3 — what would we expect to observe if each were true? What would falsify each?
Evidence
For each hypothesis: Observation: … — Strength note: one short sentence on how much this observation supports or undermines the hypothesis and the mAIn limit (no Strong/Moderate/Weak labels). Caveat: …
If no real data, 运行 a thought experiment section instead — label bullets [THEORETICAL].
Synthesis Answer — direct 响应 to the analytical question Key uncertAInty — what single unknown swings the answer most Next data / step — what to collect or 运行 next Execution Rules Do not conflate Hypotheses and Evidence in the same bullet 列出. Numbers: if 输入s are guessed, show ranges and label [ESTIMATED]. Prefer structure over long prose. 检查列出 (验证 before 响应ing) 设置up: analytical question + default pass (note if Options matrix used) Frame 状态s question type and baseline Decompose is 扫描nable (tree or table) Hypotheses have falsifiers Evidence (or [THEORETICAL]) m应用ed to hypotheses Synthesis: answer, uncertAInty, next step