📦 Investment Risk Scanner (Buffett Framework) — Investment Risk 扫描器 (Buffett 框架)

🎯 Investment Risk 扫描器 — Buffett 框架 Core Question

"What h应用ens if the subsidies 停止?"

Users still stay? → Probably OK ✅ Users leave immediately? → Ponzi-lite 🚨 Five-Layer Inspection 系统 Layer 1: Business 模型 检查 Pass ✅ Danger 🚨 Subsidy test Users stay without incentive 🚨 No (Qutoutiao/StepN) Moat describable? Clear description 🚨 Vague Competitor replication time >3 years 🚨 Cloneable anytime DCF/Owner Earnings Positive or estimable ⚠️ Unclear Layer 2: Unit Economics 检查 Formula Danger 签名al User value Ad revenue > incentive cost? Qutoutiao style 🚨 令牌 value Real cash flow support? StepN style 🚨 Lending 模型 Rate > cost + defaults? P2P style 🚨 For EV/Cars Gross margin > 15%? Below = weak ⚠️ For Tech Revenue growth - FCF 质量? Burning cash > revenue ⚠️ Layer 3: Management 检查 Pass ✅ Danger 🚨 Skin in Game Major personal stake 🚨 Barely holds 分享s 追踪 record Delivers on promises 🚨 Misses commitments Narrative Talks about moat 🚨 Only talks about growth Incentives Aligned with 分享holders 🚨 Misaligned

Quantitative: Founder/stakeholder ownership >20% = strong 签名al ✅

Layer 4: Valuation & Margin of Safety 检查 Pass ✅ Danger 🚨 DCF estimable? Reasonable assumptions 🚨 Pure speculation Margin of safety? >30% 🚨 Zero margin SustAInable growth? <3% 🚨 5%+ unrea列出ic Growth 质量? Organic 🚨 FundrAIsing-dependent

Quantitative Thresholds:

Metric Safe ✅ 警告 ⚠️ Danger 🚨 Forward P/E <20x 20-40x >40x PEG Ratio <1.0 1.0-2.0 >2.0 P/S <2x 2-5x >5x P/B <3x 3-8x >8x FCF Positive Breakeven Persistent negative ROE >15% 8-15% <8% Net Margin >10% 3-10% <3% Debt/Equity <30% 30-60% >60% Layer 5: Structural Risk 检查 Red Flag 🚩 Liquidity 运行way <12 months Regulation Depends on regulatory arbitrage Techno记录y Single-tech dependency Competition RAPIdly disrupting industry Geopolitics Major market concentration Comprehensive Scoring Card Project Name: ________________

□ Business 模型 □ Pass / □ Watch / □ Avoid □ Unit Economics □ Pass / □ Watch / □ Avoid □ Management □ Pass / □ Watch / □ Avoid □ Valuation Safety □ Pass / □ Watch / □ Avoid □ Structural Risk □ Low / □ Medium / □ High

Overall: □ Investable □ Watch □ Avoid

Built-in Case 库 Project Type Conclusion Qutoutiao Ponzi-lite 🚨 Avoid — no moat, DCF always negative StepN Ponzi-lite 🚨 Avoid — 令牌 has no cash flow, Ponzi structure WeWork Turnaround trap 🚨 Avoid — no moat, management 失败 Quibi Concept 失败 🚨 Avoid — no user stickiness, unit economics collapsed AMC Meme-stock Ponzi 🚨 Avoid — dilution machine, bankruptcy risk RIVN EV price war victim 🚨 Avoid — burning cash, no clear path to profit COIN Crypto policy bet 🚨 High Risk — regulatory uncertAInty is existential TSLA Dream stock 🚨 High Risk — PE 341, Elon Musk concentration risk PLTR Government dependency ⚠️ Watch — AIP promising but PE 500+ is rich NVDA AI infrastructure moat ⚠️ Watch — real moat but fully priced in BYD EV Toyota 模型 ⚠️ Watch — cheap (PE 19.7x) but price war pressure Geely Cheap EV with strong founder ⚠️ Watch — PE 11x extremely cheap, FCF positive 输出 格式化 Template

🎯 [Name] Risk Assessment

📋 Inspection 结果s

Dimension	结果	Note
Business 模型	✅/⚠️/🚨	[One sentence]
Unit Economics	✅/⚠️/🚨	[One sentence]
Management	✅/⚠️/🚨	[One sentence]
Valuation	✅/⚠️/🚨	[One sentence]
Structural Risk	Low/Med/High	[Key risks]

💡 Core Judgment

[2-3 sentences with key conclusion]

⚠️ Key Risks

• [Most serious risk]
• [Secondary risk]
• [Other observations]

✅ Potential Upsides

• [If any]
• [If any]

📊 Quantitative Scorecard

Metric	Value	签名al
Forward P/E	xxx	✅/⚠️/🚨
PEG	xxx	✅/⚠️/🚨
ROE	xxx	✅/⚠️/🚨
FCF	xxx	✅/⚠️/🚨
Debt/Equity	xxx	✅/⚠️/🚨

📌 Buffett 框架 Quotes

"[Relevant quote]"

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Overall: □ Investable □ Watch □ Avoid

Cross-Stock Comparison Template

Use this when comparing 2+ stocks:

Metric	[Stock A]	[Stock B]	Winner
Market Cap	$X	$Y	[A/B]
Forward P/E	Xx	Yx	✅ Cheaper
PEG	X	Y	✅ Cheaper
ROE	X%	Y%	✅ Higher
Net Margin	X%	Y%	✅ Higher
FCF	$X	$Y	✅ Better
FCF 质量	Positive/Negative	...	...
Debt/Equity	X%	Y%	✅ Lower risk
Founder Ownership	X%	Y%	✅ Stronger
Moat Depth	Strong/Med/Weak	...	...
Price War Resilience	Strong/Med/Weak	...	...
52W Performance	+X%	+Y%	Momentum

Overall: □ [A] □ [B] □ Tie

Quantitative Decision Matrix

When scoring, use 1-5 stars:

Score Meaning Action ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5) 异常al — rare opportunity Strong buy ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4) Good — meets all criteria Buy on dips ⭐⭐⭐ (3) Average — mixed 签名als Watch only ⭐⭐ (2) Below average — multiple concerns Avoid or sell ⭐ (1) Poor — fAIls most tests Avoid

Final Score = Average of 5 lay