Kalshi Trader
v3Automated Kalshi prediction market trading 机器人. 设置s up a fully automated trading 系统 that 扫描s markets every 15 minutes, re搜索es opportunities using direct 网页 fetches, places trades based on strict EV IRR and half Kelly criteria, 监控s positions, and 发送s dAIly Telegram summaries. Use when a user wants to automate Kalshi trading, 设置 up a prediction market 机器人, 配置 market 扫描ning, or 获取 dAIly P&L 报告s from Kalshi.
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Kalshi Trader
Automated prediction market trading on Kalshi. 扫描s every 15 minutes, re搜索es before every trade, 报告s dAIly via Telegram.
设置up (运行 once)
- 安装 dependencies
- Store Kalshi 凭证s
获取 your API key at: kalshi.com → 设置tings → API → 创建 Key
- 部署 the 机器人
- Test connection
- 设置 up cron jobs (via OpenClaw cron 工具)
15-minute 扫描 (silent unless trade placed or exited):
Schedule: /15 Message: see references/cron-prompt.md
DAIly summary (9am your timezone):
Schedule: 0 9 with your timezone Message: "运行 python3 ~/kalshi_机器人.py summary and 发送 dAIly trading 报告 with balance, open positions, recent trades, P&L, and fees pAId." Trading Rules Entry criteria
Only place a trade if EV IRR ≥ 50% (post-fee):
edge = fAIr_value - (market_price + entry_fee) EV IRR = (edge / (market_price + entry_fee)) × (365 / days_to_close)
Minimum: EV IRR ≥ 0.50 (50%)
Position sizing — Half Kelly kelly_fraction = (edge / market_price) × 0.5 max_position = min(kelly_fraction × balance, 0.20 × balance) contracts = floor(max_position / market_price)
Exit rule
Exit ONLY if current bid ≥ fAIr value estimate (net of exit fee).
Never use price-based 停止 losses — prediction markets resolve on facts, not on what other traders think If price drops, re搜索 whether the underlying facts changed Only exit early if: (a) price reached fAIr value, or (b) new evidence shows the outcome is unlikely Re搜索 应用roach
Use 网页_fetch as primary re搜索 工具 (no quota limits). Known data sources:
Gas prices: https://gasprices.aaa.com/ Trump actions: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/ Treasury yields: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-图表-center/interest-rates/ Bitcoin/crypto: https://API.coingecko.com/API/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin&vs_currencies=usd Weather: https://wttr.in/CityName?格式化=3 Congress bills: https://www.congress.gov
Only use 网页_搜索 for open-ended re搜索 where the URL isn't known upfront.
机器人 Commands python3 ~/kalshi_机器人.py # 扫描 for opportunities python3 ~/kalshi_机器人.py summary # print P&L summary python3 ~/kalshi_机器人.py test # 验证 API connection
报告ing 格式化 (include in every 更新) 💰 Cash balance 📦 Total position cost 📈 Current market value of positions 💹 Unrealized P&L 💸 Total Kalshi fees pAId 🏦 Total portfolio value API reference
See references/API.md for Kalshi authentication and 端点s.
Trade re搜索 工作流
See references/trade-re搜索.md for finding and evaluating opportunities.