Loss Reserving Triangle Memo

Use when a property & casualty (P&C) reserving actuary, actuarial analyst, Appointed Actuary support team, captive actuary, or reinsurance actuary needs to prepare a triangle-based reserve indication and a peer-reviewable reserving memo for personal-lines, commercial-lines, specialty, captive, or reinsurance business. Guides scoped intake of role, line of business, segmentation, evaluation date, currency, reinsurance basis (gross / ceded / net), valuation purpose (statutory / GAAP / IFRS 17 / management / SAO support), and data inventory; reviews triangle data quality (paid loss, case-incurred loss, reported and closed claim counts, exposures, ALAE basis) and flags structural breaks; develops age-to-age factors with an explicit averaging policy and tail-factor selection; builds the standard method family — paid LDF, incurred LDF, paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson, incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson, Cape Cod, expected loss ratio, optional frequency-severity — per accident year and segment; runs diagnostics (paid-to-incurred ratios, calendar-year diagonals, age-to-age variability, ultimate-loss-ratio progression, IBNR-to-case reasonableness, prior-period A-vs-E); reconciles indicated to selected ultimates and IBNR with documented weights and overrides; captures inflation, trend, frequency / severity, large-loss, and reinsurance-cession judgments; builds a sensitivity table; runs an ASOP-defensibility self-check (ASOP 13, 23, 25, 36, 41, 43); maintains a chronological judgment log; and produces a DRAFT reserving memo with an unsigned reviewing-actuary sign-off block — for actuarial peer review and Appointed Actuary support. Never a signed Statement of Actuarial Opinion, never a regulatory filing, never investment / accounting / legal advice.

by @archlab-space (devasher)·MIT-0