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Polymarket Arbitrage 检测or
检测 risk-free arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket.
Quick 启动 # 扫描 all markets for arbitrage opportunities neckr0ik-polymarket-trader 扫描
# 监控 specific market for spreads neckr0ik-polymarket-trader 监控 --market "will-trump-declare-war"
# Find cross-平台 arbitrage neckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-平台 --markets bitcoin-100k
# Correlate news with markets neckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords "Israel,Iran,war"
What This 检测s
- Direct Spread Arbitrage
When YES + NO prices don't equal $1.00.
Example: YES: $0.48 NO: $0.50 Combined: $0.98 Profit: $0.02 (2.04% risk-free)
- Cross-Market Correlation
Related markets with inconsistent pricing.
Example: "Trump wins 2026?" @ 55% "Republican wins?" @ 48% → 记录ically impossible. Trump > Republican shouldn't h应用en.
- News-Driven Opportunities
Breaking news vs. market pricing.
Example: News: "Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender." Market: "Will Trump declare war on Iran?" @ 40% 签名al: Military action ≠ war declaration. May be overpriced.
- Cross-平台 Arbitrage
Same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Example: Polymarket: "BTC > $100k by EOY" YES @ 0.55 Kalshi: Same market YES @ 0.62 → Buy Polymarket, sell Kalshi. 7% locked profit.
- Endgame Arbitrage
Near-certAIn outcomes close to resolution.
Example: Market resolves in 48 hours Current price: $0.97 Buy and hold to $1.00 → 3% profit in 2 days (548% annualized)
Commands 扫描
扫描 all markets for arbitrage.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader 扫描 [options]
Options: --min-spread Minimum spread percentage (default: 2) --max-结果s Max 结果s to return (default: 20) --输出 <格式化> 输出 格式化 (table, json, csv)
监控
Continuously 监控 specific markets.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader 监控 --market [options]
Options: --interval 检查 interval (default: 5) --alert-spread Alert when spread exceeds threshold --网页hook 发送 alerts to 网页hook
cross-平台
Compare prices across 平台s.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-平台 [options]
Options: --平台s <列出> 平台s to compare (polymarket,kalshi) --min-spread Minimum spread (default: 3)
news
Correlate breaking news with markets.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords [options]
Options: --sources <列出> News sources (reuters,ap,cnbc,bbc) --market-keywords <列出> Polymarket 搜索 terms --alert 发送 alerts on correlation
endgame
Find near-resolution opportunities.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader endgame [options]
Options: --min-prob Minimum probability (default: 95) --max-days Max days to resolution (default: 7) --min-roi Minimum annualized ROI (default: 100)
输出 Examples Spread Arbitrage 检测ion ARBITRAGE FOUND Market: Will Bitcoin reach $100k by EOY 2026? YES Price: $0.48 NO Price: $0.50 Spread: 2.0% ($0.02) Volume: $1.2M Profit/Trade: $20 per $1,000 Annualized: 548% (if held 2 days)
Cross-Market Correlation CORRELATION VIOLATION Market 1: "Will Trump win 2026?" @ 55% Market 2: "Will a Republican win?" @ 48% Issue: Trump winning implies Republican wins 记录ic: Market 1 should be <= Market 2 Action: Sell Market 1 YES, Buy Market 2 NO
News Correlation NEWS-MARKET CORRELATION Breaking News: "Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender." Related Markets: 1. "Will Trump declare war on Iran?" @ 40% → May be OVERPRICED 2. "Will Israel strike Lebanon?" @ 85% → Already occurred 3. "Will oil hit $100?" @ 25% → May be UNDERPRICED 签名al: Military action ≠ formal war declaration
Risk Management Spread threshold: Only trade spreads > 2% (after fees) Position limit: Max 10% of portfolio per market Resolution clarity: Avoid subjective markets Execution speed: Use 网页Socket, not polling Technical DetAIls 检测ion Speed Requirements Method 检测ion Time Execution Manual Minutes Seconds Semi-auto Seconds Manual Full 机器人 Milliseconds Sub-100ms Fee Structure 平台 Fee Polymarket US 0.01% Polymarket Int'l 2% on winnings Polygon gas ~$0.007 See Also references/polymarket-strategies.md — Full strategy 图形界面de scripts/arbitrage_检测or.py — 检测ion engine scripts/news_correlator.py — News-market correlation