Polymarket 24h Geopolitics Cluster Trader

24h Geopolitics Cluster Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is geopolitical cluster consistency 检查ing — remix it with 添加itional constrAInt types, news sentiment, or satellite data feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, cluster grouping, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s many geopolitical markets that form 记录ical clusters:

Strike-count markets: "Will Israel strike 5 countries?", "...6 countries?", "...7 countries?" DAIly military action: "Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21?", "...in Lebanon on March 20?" Bilateral escalation: "Will Iran conduct military action agAInst Israel?" Ceasefire markets: "Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza?"

These markets are 记录ically constrAIned. Striking 7 countries requires striking 6 first, so P(7) <= P(6) always. Escalation in one region affects others. When retAIl trades these markets in isolation, the constrAInts break — and that is the edge.

The Edge: 记录ical Consistency Arbitrage Three Violation Types

Monotonicity violations (strike-count markets):

P(strike 7) must be <= P(strike 6) <= P(strike 5) If P(strike 7) = 8% but P(strike 6) = 5%, the 7-market is overpriced or the 6-market is underpriced

Correlation violations (dAIly military action):

If Israel has 100% probability of action in Gaza on a given date, correlated regions (Lebanon, Syria) should reflect heightened risk A very low probability in a correlated region on the same date may be underpriced

Prerequisite chAIn violations:

If P(Iran military action agAInst Israel) = 8%, then P(Israel strikes 6+ countries) — which likely requires Iranian theater escalation — should not be much higher The down流 event cannot greatly exceed its prerequisite Example Market Probability Israel strike 5 countries 20% Israel strike 6 countries 15.9% Israel strike 7 countries 18%

Violation: P(strike 7) = 18% > P(strike 6) = 15.9%. The 7-market is overpriced. Trade: sell NO on the 7-market (or buy YES on the 6-market).

Why This Works RetAIl trades in silos — users view each market independently without cross-referencing 记录ically related markets 记录ical constrAInts are structural — cumulative 事件, prerequisite chAIns, and correlation are mathematical facts, not opinions Resolution forces convergence — as resolution 应用roaches, the market must price consistently or 创建 guaranteed arbitrage Low-liquidity geopolitical markets — these niche markets have less market-maker coverage, so mispricings persist longer 签名al 记录ic Discover geopolitical markets via keyword 搜索 (Israel, military, strike, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, war, ceasefire) 解析 each question: 提取 event type, region, actor, threshold, date Group into clusters (strike-count, dAIly-action, bilateral, ceasefire) 检查 consistency constrAInts: Strike counts: monotonically decreasing probabilities DAIly action: cross-region correlation on same date Prerequisites: down流 事件 bounded by up流 probability Rank violations by magnitude Trade only opportunities that pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD) Size by conviction (violation magnitude + threshold distance), not flat amount Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 35 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION 0.04 Min cluster consistency violation to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Geopolitical 事件 are not independent coin flips. They form causal chAIns: escalation in one theater rAIses risk in adjacent theaters; striking N countries is a prerequisite for striking N+1. Prediction markets price each event individually, but the joint probability distribution must be internally consistent.

When it is not, the inconsistency is a free edge. This 技能 系统atically 检测s and trades these 记录ical violations, acting as an automated consistency enforcer for geopolitical prediction markets.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https: