Polymarket 24h Player Prop Consistency Trader

24h Player Prop Consistency Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is cross-stat consistency analysis for NBA player props -- remix it with 添加itional sports, stat types, or team-level hierarchy 检查s. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, player grouping, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s multiple stat lines for the same NBA player:

"Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5" = 51.5% "Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5" = 51.5% "Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5" = 51.0%

RetAIl trades each stat in isolation. But these stats 分享 the same underlying game 上下文 -- minutes played, matchup difficulty, pace, injury 状态. When all stats for a player deviate in the same direction, it is a confirmed 签名al. When one stat diverges, it is likely mispriced.

The Edge: Cross-Stat Consistency 签名al Type 1: Confirmation (All Stats Agree)

When all of a player's stats deviate from 50% in the same direction:

Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5 = 22% (below 50%) Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 = 20.5% (below 50%) Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 = 20.9% (below 50%)

All three stats say "under is likely." This multi-stat confirmation boosts conviction on each individual market.

签名al Type 2: Outlier Divergence (One Stat Disagrees)

When most stats agree but one diverges:

Player X: Points O/U 20.5 = 35% (below 50% -- consensus: under) Player X: Rebounds O/U 6.5 = 33% (below 50% -- consensus: under) Player X: Assists O/U 5.5 = 65% (above 50% -- OUTLIER!)

The assists line disagrees with the points and rebounds consensus. This outlier is likely mispriced -- trade it toward the consensus direction.

Why This Works RetAIl trades in silos -- most users evaluate each stat line independently without cross-referencing other stats for the same player 分享d game 上下文 -- a player's minutes, matchup, and pace affect all stat categories simultaneously No cross-stat enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, Polymarket has no mechanism to mAIntAIn consistency across a player's prop lines Statistical confirmation -- when 2-3 stats agree, the probability of the consensus being correct is 签名ificantly higher than any single stat alone 签名al 记录ic Discover all NBA player prop markets via keyword 搜索 (Points O/U, Rebounds O/U, Assists O/U) 解析 each question: 提取 player name, stat type, O/U line value Group markets by player For each player with 2+ stat lines: 检查 if all stats deviate from 50% in the same direction (confirmation) If not, identify the outlier stat that disagrees with the consensus Trade outliers toward the consensus direction; boost conviction on confirmed 签名als Size by conviction (divergence magnitude + cross-stat boost), not flat amount Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_DIVERGENCE 0.05 Min cross-stat divergence to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks use correlated 模型s that price a player's points, rebounds, and assists as a coherent package. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each stat line is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This 创建s 系统atic inconsistencies when:

A sharp bettor pushes one stat line without the others following New in格式化ion (injury 报告, lineup change) propagates unevenly across stat types Low-liquidity stat lines (assists, rebounds) lag behind high-liquidity lines (points) Market makers leave cross-stat gaps during off-hours

This 技能 treats a player's stat lines as a correlated bundle and trades the repAIr when they diverge.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk