Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader

24h Weather Distribution Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is distribution-sum and monotonicity violation 检测ion across weather temperature-bin markets — remix it with weather API feeds, ensemble forecasts, or cross-city correlation 模型s. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, distribution construction, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s multiple temperature bins for the same city and date:

"Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8C on March 28?" = 40% "Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9C on March 28?" = 45% "Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10C on March 28?" = 16%

These bins form a probability distribution that must sum to ~100%. When they don't, individual bins are mispriced. 添加itionally, cumulative markets ("X C or below", "X C or higher") impose monotonicity constrAInts.

The Edge: Distribution Arbitrage for Temperature Markets

In traditional markets, discrete outcome probabilities must sum to 1.0 — this is a fundamental axiom. On Polymarket, each temperature bin trades independently with its own order book and liquidity. RetAIl treats each bin as an isolated bet without 检查ing the full distribution.

Violation Type 1: Sum Deviation

All exact bins for a (city, date) must sum to ~100%:

P(8C) + P(9C) + P(10C) + P(11C) + ... = 100%

If the sum is 108%, at least one bin is overpriced. If the sum is 92%, at least one bin is underpriced.

Violation Type 2: Cumulative Monotonicity Break

Cumulative markets must be monotonic:

P(<=8C) <= P(<=9C) <= P(<=10C) [or_below: increasing] P(>=10C) >= P(>=9C) >= P(>=8C) [or_higher: decreasing with temp]

If a lower threshold has a higher "or below" probability than a higher threshold, the curve is broken.

Why This Works RetAIl trades in silos — most users view each temperature bin independently and don't cross-reference the full distribution No market maker enforcing consistency — unlike bookmakers who balance their book, Polymarket has no mechanism to keep bins summing to 100% Mathematical, not opinion — the violations are provable inconsistencies in the probability axioms Many cities, dAIly resolution — 14 cities with dAIly temperature markets 创建 a large opportunity surface 签名al 记录ic Discover all weather temperature markets via keyword 搜索 解析 each question: 提取 city, temperature value, date, and type (exact/or_below/or_higher) Group into distributions by (city, date) For each distribution with 2+ bins: 检查 if exact bins sum to ~100% (tolerance configurable via SIMMER_SUM_TOLERANCE) If sum > 105%: identify and sell the most overpriced bin (highest relative to neighbors) If sum < 95%: identify and buy the most underpriced bin (lowest relative to neighbors) 检查 monotonicity on cumulative bins Rank violations by magnitude Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD) Size by conviction (violation magnitude + threshold distance), not flat amount Supported Cities

Chengdu, Shenzhen, Munich, Dallas, Austin, San Francisco, Seoul, Chicago, Wuhan, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, New York City.

Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_SUM_TOLERANCE 0.05 Allowed deviation from 100% sum before trading Edge Thesis

Weather temperature markets on Polymarket are structured as discrete probability distributions. Each bin trades independently, but they are mathematically constrAIned to sum to 100%. When retAIl order flow pushes individual bins without propagating to the full distribution, the sum deviates — creating pure mathematical arbitrage. This 技能 reconstructs the distribution, finds where the axioms break, and trades the repAIr.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk