Polymarket 48h Nba Game Structure Trader

48h NBA Game Structure Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s structural inconsistencies across correlated NBA game markets -- remix it with 添加itional sports, league-specific heuristics, or live odds feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, game grouping, cross-market 检查s, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s multiple correlated markets for each NBA game:

Moneyline: "命令行工具ppers vs. Pacers" = 79.7% 1H Moneyline: "命令行工具ppers vs. Pacers: 1H Moneyline" = 50.5% Full-game O/U: "命令行工具ppers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5" = 56.7%, O/U 236.5 = 55.2%, O/U 237.5 = 52% 1H O/U: "命令行工具ppers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5" = 50.5% Spreads: "Spread: 命令行工具ppers (-8.5)" = 41%, "1H Spread: 命令行工具ppers (-5.5)" = 50.5%

RetAIl trades each market as an isolated bet. But to获取her, these markets form a structural 网页 that must be internally consistent.

This 技能 reconstructs the full game structure and finds where it is mathematically broken.

The Edge: NBA Game Structure Arbitrage Inconsistency Type 1: Moneyline vs 1H Moneyline

If the full-game moneyline says a team is an 80% favorite, the 1H moneyline cannot be a coin-flip. The expected 1H advantage is dampened but must exist:

If ML_full > 70%, then ML_1h > 50% + (ML_full - 50%) * dampening

When the 1H moneyline diverges too far from what the full-game moneyline implies, the 1H market is mispriced.

Inconsistency Type 2: O/U Monotonicity

Within the same game, the probability of going OVER must decrease as the line increases:

P(O/U 235.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 236.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 237.5 OVER)

If a higher line is priced above a lower line, the curve is broken -- pure structural arbitrage.

Inconsistency Type 3: 1H O/U vs Full-Game O/U

At the same line value, the full-game total always exceeds the 1H total, so:

P(Full O/U X OVER) >= P(1H O/U X OVER)

If a 1H O/U market is priced higher than the equivalent full-game O/U market, the relationship is violated.

Inconsistency Type 4: Spread vs Moneyline Direction

The spread favorite (negative line) must be the moneyline favorite. If the spread says 命令行工具ppers (-8.5) but the moneyline says Pacers are favored, the markets contradict each other.

Why This Works RetAIl trades in silos -- most users view each market independently and do not cross-reference the full game structure No market maker enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, there is no central entity mAIntAIning consistency across related markets Mathematical, not opinion -- the violations are provable inconsistencies in the implied game 模型 NBA-specific density -- NBA games 生成 5-15+ correlated markets per game, creating more surface area for inconsistencies RAPId line movement -- NBA spreads and totals move on injury news, creating temporary cross-market divergences 签名al 记录ic Discover all NBA-related markets via keyword and team name 搜索 解析 each question: 提取 teams, market type (moneyline/spread/O/U), scope (full/1H), line value Group ALL markets for the same game into a GameGroup For each game with 2+ markets: 检查 moneyline vs 1H moneyline consistency 检查 O/U monotonicity within full-game and 1H lines 检查 1H O/U vs full-game O/U at matching lines 检查 spread direction vs moneyline direction Rank inconsistencies by magnitude Trade only inconsistencies that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD) Size by conviction, not flat amount Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_INCONSISTENCY 0.05 Min structural inconsistency magnitude to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks have professional line-设置ters who enforce consistency across all markets for the same game. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market (moneyline, spread, O/U, 1H variants) is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This 创建s 系统atic micro-inconsistencies in the implied game 模型, especially when:

Injury news moves the moneyline but not the 1H mone