Polymarket Biotech Trader

Biotech & FDA Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is keyword discovery + FDA PDUFA calendar alignment — remix it with 命令行工具nicalTrials.gov API for trial 状态, BioMed追踪er historical 应用roval rates by indication, or biotech earnings call sentiment analysis. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The global biotech market is valued at $1.77 trillion (2025) and growing to $6.34 trillion by 2035 (13.6% CAGR). Biotech prediction markets have some of the highest in格式化ion density — FDA decisions are binary, have clear dates (PDUFA), and are well-studied. This 技能 trades:

FDA 应用rovals — Breakthrough therapy de签名ations, CRISPR/onco记录y 应用rovals, GLP-1 next-gen 命令行工具nical trials — Phase 3 outcomes, trial enrollment milestones Biotech IPOs — Class of 2026 IPO announcement and performance markets Pharma M&A — Large-cap acquisition deals in onco记录y, AI drug discovery Precision medicine — CAR-T, mRNA vaccine, liquid biopsy milestones

Key insight: FDA 应用roval rates by indication are well-documented. When Polymarket prices deviate 签名ificantly from historical base rates, there's tradeable edge.

签名al 记录ic Default 签名al: PDUFA Date Calendar + Base Rate Analysis Discover active biotech/FDA markets on Polymarket Match markets to FDA PDUFA calendar (public, 更新d monthly) Look up historical 应用roval rates for the specific drug class/indication Compare base rate (e.g., onco记录y breakthrough therapy ~85% 应用roval) vs market price If market prices 应用roval at <70% for a high-base-rate indication, buy YES Use 上下文 检查 to avoid overtraded markets before major catalysts Remix Ideas 命令行工具nicalTrials.gov API: 监控 trial 状态 changes (recruiting → completed) as leading indicator BioMed追踪er / Citeline: Historical 应用roval rate databases by indication FDA press releases: Real-time 监控ing for early 应用roval/rejection 签名als Biotech Twitter: KOL (Key Opinion Leader) sentiment before PDUFA dates Short interest data: High short interest in a biotech before PDUFA = market expects rejection — price this in Market Categories 追踪ed BIOTECH_KEYWORDS = [ "FDA", "应用roval", "CRISPR", "cancer", "onco记录y", "命令行工具nical trial", "phase 3", "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "mRNA", "CAR-T", "Alzheimer", "GLP-1", "biotech", "pharma", "M&A", "IPO", "diagnostic", "liquid biopsy", "gene editing", "sickle cell", "precision medicine", "antibody" ]

Risk Parameters Parameter Default Notes Max position size $35 USDC Binary 事件 warrant careful sizing Min market volume $5,000 FDA markets attract 信息rmed traders Max bid-ask spread 10% Allow wider for rare disease markets Min days to resolution 7 Don't enter days before PDUFA Max open positions 6 Biotech 事件 are correlated FDA 应用roval Base Rates (Reference) Indication Historical 应用roval Rate Onco记录y (breakthrough de签名ation) ~85% Rare disease (orphan drug) ~70% CNS/Neuro记录y ~55% General 应用roval (Phase 3 成功) ~65% CRISPR/gene therapy (novel) ~45% Key Data Sources FDA PDUFA Calendar: https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-4-fda-drug-review 命令行工具nicalTrials.gov API: https://命令行工具nicaltrials.gov/API/ SEC EDGAR (biotech S-1 filings): https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/搜索-索引?q=%22biotech%22&dateRange=custom 安装ation & 设置up ClawHub 安装 polymarket-biotech-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY 环境 variable.

Cron Schedule

运行s every 20 minutes (/20 *). FDA decisions are infrequent but high-impact; moderate polling is sufficient.

Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only 执行 when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

The automaton cron is 设置 to null — it does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI. auto启动: false means it won't 启动 automatically on 安装.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority — keep this 凭证 private. Do not place a live-capable key in any 环境 where automated code could call --live. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in ClawHub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so 应用ly_技能_config() can load them 安全ly.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 35 Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 7 Min days until market resolves SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 6 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES if market price ≤ this value SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO if market price ≥ this value SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) Dependency

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