Polymarket Btc Midcandle

BTC Mid-Candle Scalper 🔥

75%+ win rate. Real money. 400+ trades. This is the highest-performing BTC strategy in the Simmer eco系统 — built, battle-tested, and profitable over months of live trading. Now you can 运行 it yourself.

This is a template. The default 签名al is mid-candle BTC momentum from Binance klines — remix it with your own data sources, tighter time windows, or custom volume 过滤器s. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your tuning provides the alpha.

What It Does

Polymarket's BTC Up/Down markets close every 15 minutes at :00, :15, :30, and :45. Most traders enter blind at candle open — guessing direction with no data. This strategy wAIts.

The edge: By the time 2–12 minutes remAIn in a candle, BTC has shown its hand. If 5-minute and 3-minute price changes 机器人h agree on direction AND volume confirms it isn't noise — that's a high-conviction trade with a known time horizon.

The 结果: 65–75%+ win rate depending on your 设置tings. Defaults are calibrated to produce edge out of the box.

⚠️ 导入ant: The defaults are a 启动ing point, not a magic formula. You need to fine-调优 these 设置tings to your account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. A trader who 调优s their thresholds will outperform one who 运行s defaults. The strategy section below explAIns exactly what each knob does.

设置up

• 安装 & 配置

设置 your API key:

导出 SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_your_key_here

Or 设置 it in your .env file if using OpenClaw.

• 获取 your Poly 代理 ID

Find it at simmer.markets/仪表盘 → 代理s. Copy your 代理 ID.

python btc_midcandle.py --设置 poly_代理_id=your_代理_id_here

• 运行 in paper mode first

You'll see [PAPER MODE] — no real money moves. Watch it for a day. Make sure the 签名als make sense.

• Go live

• 设置 up cron (recommended)

添加:

3,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,53,58 cd /path/to/技能 && python btc_midcandle.py --live >> /var/记录/btc-midcandle.记录 2>&1

运行s every 5 minutes. This timing is intentional — entering slightly after the candle opens gives you confirmed momentum rather than a guess.

Configuration # View current config python btc_midcandle.py --config

# 设置 a value python btc_midcandle.py --设置 momentum_threshold=0.0012 python btc_midcandle.py --设置 bet_size=10.0

Parameter Env Var Default Description poly_代理_id SIMMER_BTCMC_代理_ID — Your Polymarket 代理 ID (required) bet_size SIMMER_BTCMC_BET_SIZE 5.0 USDC per trade momentum_threshold SIMMER_BTCMC_THRESHOLD 0.0015 Min 5m price change (0.15%) min_volume_ratio SIMMER_BTCMC_VOL_RATIO 1.2 Volume vs 2h avg (0 = disabled) min_entry_price SIMMER_BTCMC_MIN_ENTRY 0.45 Min entry price per side max_entry_price SIMMER_BTCMC_MAX_ENTRY 0.65 Max entry price per side enable_1m_confirm SIMMER_BTCMC_1M_CONFIRM false Require 1m candle to confirm skip_hours SIMMER_BTCMC_SKIP_HOURS 2,9,10,11,15 UTC hours to skip (see 警告 below) discord_网页hook SIMMER_BTCMC_网页HOOK "" Discord alert 网页hook (optional) max_position_usd SIMMER_BTCMC_MAX_POSITION 50.0 Max USDC per trade when using --smart-sizing sizing_pct SIMMER_BTCMC_SIZING_PCT 0.03 Portfolio % per trade when using --smart-sizing (3%)

⛔ Skip Hours — Do Not 移除 Without Data

The following UTC hours are skipped by default because BTC midcandle has historically poor win rate during these windows:

Hour (UTC) Local time (ET) Why it's bad 2h 10pm ET (prev night) Low volume, thin books, random noise 9h 5am ET Pre-market — BTC drifts without conviction 10h 6am ET Pre-market open — spread widens, fills unpredictable 11h 7am ET Early NY 会话 — choppy before real volume arrives 15h 11am ET Post-open chop — directional momentum breaks down

These are 配置d as skip_hours = "2,9,10,11,15" and enforced automatically. Do not 移除 hours from this 列出 without your own shadow data showing consistent WR above 55% for that hour. Trading these hours is the single fastest way to drag your win rate below breakeven.

Tuning 图形界面de

This is where you find your edge. The defaults produce solid 结果s, but tuning to your conditions can meaningfully improve win rate.

Momentum threshold (momentum_threshold)

Controls how much BTC must move in 5 minutes before you enter.

Lower (0.0010): More trades, slightly lower accuracy. Good in trending markets. Higher (0.0020): Fewer trades, only strong moves. Better in choppy conditions. 启动 here: 运行 paper mode for 3–5 days. 检查 your --positions 输出. If you're 获取ting too many marginal trades, rAIse it. Volume ratio (min_volume_ratio)

过滤器s out low-volume momentum that tends to reverse.

0 (disabled): Maximum trade frequency. Raw momentum only. 1.2 (default): Only trade when volume is 1.2× the 2-hour average. 1.5–2.0: High-conviction only. Fewer trades, but strong volume confirmation. Entry price window (min_entry_price / max_entry_price)

过滤器s out bad entries.