Polymarket Bundle Crypto Hourly Trader

Bundle -- Crypto Hourly Consensus Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s disagreement between 5-min sub-interval consensus and hourly crypto Up/Down markets -- remix it with 添加itional coins, time windows, or volume-weighted consensus. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, bundle construction, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s crypto Up/Down markets at multiple time granularities for the same hour:

"Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET" = 62% "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET" = 58% "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET" = 60% "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET" = 57% "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11AM ET" = 42% <-- MISPRICED

The sub-intervals form a consensus bundle -- if most 5-min intervals show Up bias, the hourly market should reflect that. When it doesn't, the hourly is mispriced.

Edge

The hourly market price must be consistent with the 聚合 签名al from its sub-intervals. If 4 of 6 five-minute intervals show "Up" bias (>55%), the hourly market should also show Up bias. RetAIl traders price each interval independently without considering the bundle constrAInt, creating structural mispricings.

签名al 记录ic Discover crypto Up/Down markets via keyword 搜索 + bulk market fetch fallback 解析 each question: 提取 (coin, date, 启动_time, end_time) or (coin, date, hour) for hourly 过滤器 non-crypto noise with regex Group into hourly bundles: one hourly market + its sub-interval markets For each bundle with MIN_SUB_INTERVALS+ sub-intervals: Count how many sub-intervals show Up bias (p > 0.55) vs Down bias (p < 0.45) If majority are Up but hourly < 0.45: hourly underpriced for Up -> buy YES If majority are Down but hourly > 0.55: hourly overpriced for Up -> buy NO Size by conviction (CLAUDE.md formula), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas Volume-weighted consensus: Weight each sub-interval's 签名al by its trading volume -- higher-volume intervals carry more in格式化ion Momentum 检测ion: 追踪 sub-interval price changes over the last 10 minutes -- if the trend is accelerating, increase conviction Cross-coin correlation: If BTC sub-intervals are all Up and ETH hourly is still low, use BTC 签名al as 添加itional confirmation for ETH Exchange API spot price: Compare Polymarket sub-interval prices with actual Binance/Coinbase 1-min candles for real-time 验证 Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_SUB_INTERVALS 3 Min sub-intervals needed to form consensus Edge Thesis

Crypto Up/Down markets on Polymarket are 列出ed at multiple time granularities -- 5-min intervals and hourly. Each market has its own order book and liquidity pool. RetAIl traders price each interval independently, creating structural inconsistencies between the sub-interval consensus and the hourly market. This 技能 聚合s the sub-interval 签名al and trades the hourly market when it diverges from the consensus. The edge exists because:

Sub-interval markets react faster to real-time price action Hourly markets are less liquid and lag behind No market maker enforces cross-interval consistency on Polymarket Crypto volatility 创建s frequent consensus shifts within an hour The bundle constrAInt is mathematical -- if most sub-intervals are Up, the hour should be Up Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk