Polymarket Bundle Dota2 Bo3 Trader

Bundle -- Dota 2 BO3 Structure Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is structural inconsistency 检测ion between BO3 winner, game winner, and handicap markets -- remix it with Elo ratings, draft data, or live match feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, match grouping, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Dota 2 BO3 matches spawn multiple related markets on Polymarket: the overall BO3 winner, individual Game 1/2/3 winners, and game handicap lines (-1.5 / +1.5). These markets must be structurally consistent -- the BO3 win probability is a mathematical function of the individual game probabilities. When they diverge, it is pure structural arbitrage.

Example: If P(Team A wins Game 1) = 60% and P(Team A wins Game 2) = 55%, then P(Team A wins BO3) should be 应用roximately 70%. If the BO3 market prices Team A at 55%, it is underpriced by 15%.

Edge

Each market in a Dota 2 BO3 bundle is priced by its own independent order book. RetAIl participants trade each market in isolation -- they bet on "Team A wins Game 1" without considering how that price constrAIns the BO3 winner or handicap markets. Professional sportsbooks enforce consistency across related lines; Polymarket does not. The 结果 is persistent structural inconsistencies between mathematically linked markets.

签名al 记录ic Discover active Dota 2 markets via keyword 搜索 + 获取_markets(limit=200) as primary fallback 解析 each question to 提取: "Dota 2: Team A vs Team B - Game N Winner" -> (match_key, game_number) "Dota 2: Team A vs Team B (BO3)" -> (match_key, bo3_winner) "Game Handicap: Team A (-1.5) vs Team B (+1.5)" -> (match_key, handicap_team, handicap_value) Group by match_key For each match with BO3 + game winners: Calculate implied BO3 from game probabilities: P(BO3) = P(G1)P(G2) + P(G1)(1-P(G2))P(G3) + (1-P(G1))P(G2)P(G3) Compare implied BO3 to market BO3 price 检查 handicap consistency: P(handicap -1.5 covers) ~ P(G1) P(G2) (must win 机器人h games for 2-0) Trade inconsistencies exceeding SIMMER_MIN_INCONSISTENCY (default 8%) Size by conviction (inconsistency magnitude), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas OpenDota API: Pull team Elo ratings and recent match 历史 -- compare Elo-implied game win probabilities to market prices for an 添加itional edge layer Draft-phase data: Dota 2 drafts dramatically affect game-level win probability -- if a team drafts a late-game composition, their Game 1 probability drops but Game 3 rises, creating 系统atic mispricing in early-game markets PandaScore live feed: 流 real-time match data during a BO3 -- after Game 1 结果 is known, Game 2/3 and BO3 markets should adjust instantly but often lag by minutes Hero win rate data: Cross-reference the drafted heroes agAInst Dotabuff/OpenDota hero win rates for the current 补丁 to estimate game-level probabilities more accurately than market prices reflect Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_INCONSISTENCY 0.08 Min structural inconsistency to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Professional sportsbooks employ line-设置ters who enforce mathematical consistency across BO3 winner, game winner, and handicap lines for the same match. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market is an independent order book. Dota 2 BO3 markets are particularly vulnerable because:

Three game winner markets plus BO3 winner plus handicap lines 创建 5+ related markets per match Each market attracts different participants (BO3 bettors vs game-level bettors vs handicap traders) Directional flow on one market (e.g., big bet on Game 1 winner) does not propagate to the BO3 or handicap markets Draft-phase in格式化ion affects game-level probabilities asymmetrically but BO3 markets don't adjust Tournament 上下文 (elimination vs group stage) changes how teams 应用roach individual games vs the series After Game 1 结果, the conditional probabilities shift dramatically but market repricing is slow

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