Polymarket Bundle Esports Tempo Trader

Bundle -- Esports Tempo Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s tempo inconsistencies between first blood, kills O/U, daytime ending, rampage, and ultra kill props within the same Dota2/esports game -- remix it with draft data, hero pick rates, or live match feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, bundle construction, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Dota2 and other esports matches on Polymarket spawn multiple correlated game-level props: first blood, kills O/U, daytime ending, ultra kill, and rampage. These props collectively describe the "game tempo" -- whether the game will be fast and aggressive or slow and methodical. When tempo indicators contradict each other, one or more props are mispriced. This 技能 检测s and trades those inconsistencies.

Edge

Each prop within a game is priced by its own order book. RetAIl traders price "First Blood" and "Kills O/U 50.5" independently, but these are deeply correlated:

First blood high + kills low: Early aggression strongly correlates with higher overall kill pace. If first blood is expected at 70% but kills O/U OVER is at 35%, the kills market hasn't absorbed the aggression 签名al. Daytime ending high + kills high: "Ends in Daytime" means the game finishes before nightfall cycles accumulate -- a fast, stompy game. Fast games end before late-game teamfights 生成 high kill counts. 机器人h being high is contradictory. Rampage/ultra kill high + kills low: Multi-kill streaks (4+ kills in quick 成功ion) mechanically require a high overall kill count. You cannot have frequent rampages in a 30-kill game.

No sportsbook would allow these contradictions, but Polymarket has no cross-prop consistency enforcement.

签名al 记录ic Discover active esports game props via keyword 搜索 + 获取_markets(limit=200) as primary fallback 解析 each question: 提取 match_key, game_number, prop_type (first_blood, daytime, kills_ou, rampage, ultra_kill), line_value 过滤器 non-esports markets with regex Group into tempo bundles by (match_key, game_number) Compute tempo score from all avAIlable props -- 聚合 aggressive vs passive 签名als 检测 inconsistencies: Daytime high + kills O/U high (fast game = fewer kills) First blood high + kills O/U low (early aggro = more kills) Rampage/ultra kill high + kills O/U low (multi-kills need high kills) Trade the prop that deviates most from the tempo consensus Size by conviction (inconsistency magnitude), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas Draft data (Dotabuff/OpenDota): Aggressive drafts with teamfight heroes predict higher kill totals -- feed hero composition into tempo expectations before comparing to market prices Lane matchup analysis: Volatile lane matchups (e.g., 机器人h mid heroes are gankers) predict early first blood -- use hero data to sharpen first blood expectations PandaScore live feed: 流 real-time game 状态 during BO3 -- if Game 1 was a stomp with 60+ kills, Game 2 tempo props should shift 补丁 meta 追踪ing: After Dota2 补丁es that buff teamfight items or nerf split-push strategies, kill totals shift 系统atically -- historical 补丁 data predicts tempo direction Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day for live games) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION 0.04 Min tempo inconsistency magnitude to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Dota2 game props form a "tempo bundle" where all indicators should tell a consistent story about how the game will play out. Traditional sportsbooks enforce this consistency through centralized line-设置ting. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each prop is its own independent order book. Esports tempo props are especially vulnerable because:

First blood, kills, daytime, and multi-kill props are deeply correlated but priced independently RetAIl traders specialize in one prop type (e.g., kills markets) without 检查ing adjacent tempo indicators Game-specific knowledge (Dota2 day/night cycle mechanics, teamfight timing) is niche and no