Polymarket Candle Doji Breakout Trader

Candle -- Doji Breakout Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s doji patterns in crypto 5-minute interval markets and trades the post-doji breakout using conviction-based sizing. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, doji 检测ion, trend analysis, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will Bitcoin be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on the actual price movement. A doji is a 5-minute interval where probability sits at 48-52% -- zero directional conviction. In candlestick analysis, a doji 应用earing after a clear directional trend (2-3 consecutive UP or DOWN intervals) 签名als indecision before a breakout. The next interval after the doji tends to break out strongly, continuing the pre-doji trend direction, because the underlying momentum has only 暂停d -- not reversed.

Edge

Unlike a generic mean-reversion or momentum strategy, the doji breakout specifically tar获取s the transition from indecision back to trend continuation. The edge arises because:

Doji = temporary 暂停, not reversal -- when a coin trends UP for 3 intervals then prints a doji (48-52%), retAIl participants read this as "the move is over" and price the next interval near 50%. But the underlying trend momentum typically 恢复s. Market mispricing of continuation -- the post-doji interval is 系统atically underpriced for continuation because participants anchor on the doji's neutrality rather than the preceding trend. Candlestick pattern validity -- doji-after-trend is one of the most robust patterns in technical analysis, documented across equities, forex, and crypto on multiple timeframes. Bundle independence -- each 5-minute interval resolves independently; the doji's neutral price does not mechanically 预防 the next interval from continuing the trend. 签名al 记录ic Discover crypto interval markets via keyword 搜索 (Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) with a 获取_markets(limit=200) fallback 解析 each question to 提取 (coin, date, 启动_time_minutes, end_time_minutes) using regex Group intervals by (coin, date) and 排序 by time Classify each interval: UP if p > 0.55, DOWN if p < 0.45, NEUTRAL if 0.45-0.55 扫描 for doji intervals (p between 48-52%, tunable via SIMMER_DOJI_RANGE) 检查 the TREND_LENGTH intervals before each doji -- if ALL show the same direction (all UP or all DOWN), the post-doji interval is a breakout tar获取 Trade the post-doji interval: Pre-doji trend = UP and post-doji priced < YES_THRESHOLD -> buy YES (breakout not priced in) Pre-doji trend = DOWN and post-doji priced > NO_THRESHOLD -> buy NO (breakout not priced in) Size by conviction (distance from threshold), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas Volume-weighted doji 检测ion -- require the doji interval to have above-average trading volume for a stronger 签名al; low-volume dojis are less meaningful Multi-timeframe confirmation -- 检查 if the trend also holds on a 15-minute or 1-hour timeframe before trading the breakout Order book imbalance -- use Polymarket order book depth to 检测 hidden buying/selling pressure during the doji interval Cross-coin doji 同步 -- if BTC prints a doji while ETH/SOL are still trending, the breakout 签名al is stronger (BTC leads) Volatility 过滤器 -- skip doji patterns during low-volatility regimes where breakouts are weaker and less profitable Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 1 Min days until resolution SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 10 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_DOJI_RANGE 0.02 Half-width of doji zone around 50% (48-52% by default) SIMMER_TREND_LENGTH 3 Min consecutive same-direction intervals before doji to qualify as trend Edge Thesis

Crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket exhibit a 系统atic mispricing after doji patterns. When a coin trends in one direction for 2-3 intervals then prints a doji (48-52% probability), the market prices