Polymarket Candle Engulfing Reversal Trader

Candle -- Engulfing Reversal Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s engulfing reversal patterns in crypto 5-minute interval markets and trades the post-engulfing continuation using conviction-based sizing. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, engulfing 检测ion, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will Bitcoin be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on the actual price movement. An engulfing pattern occurs when one interval completely reverses the prior interval with stronger conviction. If interval N was DOWN (p=42%) and interval N+1 is UP (p=58%), and the UP move is larger than the DOWN move, that is a bullish engulfing -- one of the strongest reversal 签名als in candlestick analysis. The NEXT interval after the engulfing pAIr should continue the reversal direction.

Edge

Unlike momentum or mean-reversion strategies that look at extended streaks, the engulfing pattern tar获取s a specific two-bar structure that 签名als a decisive shift in market sentiment. The edge arises because:

Conviction asymmetry -- the engulfing interval does not merely reverse the prior direction; it does so with GREATER conviction, indicating that the new direction has stronger backing Reversal confirmation -- a single reversal could be noise, but an engulfing (where the reversal is larger than the original move) statistically predicts continuation in the new direction 系统atic underpricing -- the post-engulfing interval is often priced near 50% because participants are uncertAIn whether the reversal will hold; the engulfing pattern provides evidence that it will Bundle independence -- each 5-minute interval resolves independently, so the engulfing 签名al from intervals N and N+1 provides in格式化ional (not mechanical) alpha for interval N+2 签名al 记录ic Discover crypto interval markets via keyword 搜索 (Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) with a 获取_markets(limit=200) fallback 解析 each question to 提取 (coin, date, 启动_time_minutes, end_time_minutes) using regex Group intervals by (coin, date) and 排序 by time Classify each interval: UP if p > 0.55, DOWN if p < 0.45, NEUTRAL if 0.45-0.55 扫描 consecutive pAIrs for engulfing patterns: Bullish engulfing: prior p < 0.48, current p > 0.55, AND (current - 0.5) > (0.5 - prior), AND the conviction difference >= ENGULF_THRESHOLD Bearish engulfing: prior p > 0.52, current p < 0.45, AND (0.5 - current) > (prior - 0.5), AND the conviction difference >= ENGULF_THRESHOLD 检查 the NEXT interval after the engulfing pAIr: Bullish engulfing -> next interval should continue UP; if priced <= YES_THRESHOLD, buy YES Bearish engulfing -> next interval should continue DOWN; if priced >= NO_THRESHOLD, buy NO Size by conviction (distance from threshold), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas Double engulfing -- require two consecutive engulfing patterns (or engulfing followed by a strong same-direction interval) for a higher-confidence 签名al Volume-weighted engulfing -- weight the pattern by trading volume; high-volume engulfing is a much stronger 签名al than low-volume Cross-coin engulfing -- if BTC prints a bullish engulfing and ETH/SOL have not yet reversed, trade the lagging coins for a cross-coin engulfing play Order flow confirmation -- 检查 Polymarket order book depth after the engulfing to see if large orders are backing the new direction Engulfing + trend 上下文 -- engulfing patterns at the end of a multi-interval trend (reversal after 3+ intervals in one direction) are stronger than engulfing in choppy conditions Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 1 Min days until resolution SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 10 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_ENGULF_THRESHOLD 0.06 Min conviction difference for engulfing pattern Edge Thesis

Crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket exhibit a 系统atic mispricing after engu