Polymarket Candle Morning Star Trader

Candle Morning Star Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s Morning Star and Evening Star reversal patterns in crypto 5-min interval markets and trades the reversal continuation on the 4th interval -- remix it with volume spikes, real-time price feeds, or RSI confirmation. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, interval parsing, pattern 检测ion, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s hundreds of live crypto "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets per day across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Each asks whether a coin will go up or down in a specific 5-minute window (e.g. "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET").

The "Morning Star" is a classic three-candle 机器人tom reversal pattern:

Strong DOWN interval (p < 0.43) -- establishes bearish momentum Doji/neutral interval (0.47 < p < 0.53) -- indecision, selling exhausts Strong UP interval (p > 0.57) -- buyers take control, reversal confirmed

If the 4th interval hasn't fully priced in the reversal (still below 0.55), the continuation trade has edge. The "Evening Star" is the bearish mirror: UP -> doji -> DOWN 签名als a top reversal.

Edge

Star reversal patterns work because they capture a structural shift in market sentiment:

Exhaustion 检测ion -- The doji (neutral) candle after a strong move 签名als that the prior trend is 运行ning out of steam; this is the single most reliable reversal 签名al in candlestick analysis Confirmation candle -- The third candle moving strongly in the opposite direction confirms the reversal; two 签名als (exhaustion + reversal) compound the probability Lag exploitation -- Polymarket prices each 5-min interval somewhat independently; the 4th interval often hasn't incorporated the reversal 签名al from the preceding three Multi-coin coverage -- 扫描ning Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana multiplies pattern opportunities by 3x 签名al 记录ic Discover active crypto "Up or Down" 5-min interval markets via keyword 搜索 + 获取_markets(limit=200) fallback 解析 each question to 提取 coin, date, and time window (e.g. "Bitcoin", "March 29", "10:50AM", "10:55AM") Group by (coin, date) and 排序 by time window 扫描 for three consecutive intervals matching: Morning Star: p1 < (0.5 - STAR_BODY), p2 within (0.5 +/- STAR_DOJI), p3 > (0.5 + STAR_BODY) Evening Star: p1 > (0.5 + STAR_BODY), p2 within (0.5 +/- STAR_DOJI), p3 < (0.5 - STAR_BODY) After 检测ing pattern, 检查 the 4th interval: Morning Star + 4th < 0.55: buy YES (reversal not fully priced) Evening Star + 4th > 0.45: buy NO (reversal not fully priced) Conviction 扩展s with lag distance from expected reversal price Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction * MAX_POSITION) Remix 签名al Ideas Volume spike confirmation: Morning/Evening Stars are strongest when the doji candle has unusually high volume -- it means the exhaustion was contested, making the reversal more meaningful RSI divergence: If RSI on the underlying coin was oversold during the DOWN candle of a Morning Star, the reversal has higher probability Pattern completeness score: Weight patterns where the UP candle fully re追踪s the DOWN candle (or vice versa) higher than partial re追踪ments Time-of-day 过滤器: Reversals at 会话 opens (US, Asia, Europe) are more reliable than mid-会话; weight 签名als by proximity to 会话 boundaries Double star 检测ion: Two Morning Stars within 30 minutes = extremely strong 机器人tom 签名al; increase conviction 2x Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-会话) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_STAR_BODY 0.07 Min distance from 0.5 for strong candles (UP/DOWN) SIMMER_STAR_DOJI 0.03 Max distance from 0.5 for the middle doji candle Edge Thesis

Morning Star and Evening Star are among the most reliable reversal patterns in technical analysis. They work because they encode a three-phase narrative: (1) the prevAIling trend pushes hard, (2) momentum exhausts and the market 暂停s (doji), (3) the opposing side takes control with a strong count