Polymarket Candle Three Soldiers Trader

Candle Three Soldiers Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s Three White Soldiers and Three Black Crows patterns in crypto 5-min interval markets and trades continuation on lagging intervals -- remix it with volume confirmation, real-time price feeds, or volatility 过滤器s. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, interval parsing, pattern 检测ion, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s hundreds of live crypto "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets per day across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Each asks whether a coin will go up or down in a specific 5-minute window (e.g. "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET").

"Three White Soldiers" is a classic candlestick continuation pattern: three consecutive intervals all showing strong UP bias (p > 0.57). When this pattern 应用ears but the NEXT interval hasn't caught up yet (p < 0.55), the continuation hasn't been fully priced in. "Three Black Crows" is the bearish mirror: three consecutive strong DOWN intervals (p < 0.43), and the next interval hasn't caught down (p > 0.45).

The 技能 检测s these patterns, identifies lagging next intervals, and trades the continuation direction with conviction 扩展d by the lag distance.

Edge

Three consecutive strong-bias intervals establish a micro-trend that tends to persist one more interval:

Momentum persistence -- When three intervals all show >57% bias in one direction, the underlying move is real, not noise. The 4th interval often follows but market makers are slow to adjust its price Lag exploitation -- The next interval's price lags because Polymarket participants price each interval somewhat independently rather than incorporating the trend from adjacent intervals Multi-coin coverage -- 扫描ning Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana multiplies pattern opportunities by 3x Short resolution -- 5-minute markets resolve quickly; cAPItal is recycled fast and the edge compounds 签名al 记录ic Discover active crypto "Up or Down" 5-min interval markets via keyword 搜索 + 获取_markets(limit=200) fallback 解析 each question to 提取 coin, date, and time window (e.g. "Bitcoin", "March 29", "10:50AM", "10:55AM") Group by (coin, date) and 排序 by time window 扫描 排序ed intervals for three consecutive where ALL > SOLDIER_THRESHOLD (default 0.57) or ALL < (1 - 0.57 = 0.43) After 检测ing pattern, 检查 the NEXT interval: Three soldiers (UP) + next < 0.55: buy YES (hasn't caught up) Three crows (DOWN) + next > 0.45: buy NO (hasn't caught down) Conviction 扩展s with lag distance from trend Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction * MAX_POSITION) Remix 签名al Ideas Volume confirmation: Only trade soldiers/crows patterns where the three intervals also show above-average volume -- 过滤器s out low-liquidity noise Binance real-time feed: Confirm the underlying coin is actually trending in the soldiers/crows direction on spot markets before entering Acceleration 过滤器: Require the three intervals to show increasing bias (p1 < p2 < p3 for soldiers) -- an accelerating trend is more likely to continue Time-of-day weighting: Crypto trends are stronger during US market hours (14:00-21:00 UTC); weight continuation 签名als higher during these periods Multi-timeframe confirmation: If 机器人h 5-min and 15-min intervals show soldiers pattern, increase conviction Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-会话) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_SOLDIER_THRESHOLD 0.57 Min probability for a strong UP interval (crows = 1 - this) Edge Thesis

Candlestick continuation patterns work because they identify intervals where a micro-trend has established but hasn't fully propagated to adjacent intervals. Three consecutive strong-bias intervals are statistically 签名ificant -- they represent genuine directional momentum rather than noise. Polymarket's interval pricing is somewhat independent across adjacent windows, meaning a strong trend in intervals N, N+1, N+2 doesn't automatically 获取 priced into interval