Polymarket Catastrophe Trader

Catastrophe & Extreme Risk Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and catastrophe_bias() — two structural edges that work without any external API. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Catastrophe prediction markets are uniquely mispriced because retAIl traders anchor on the most recent vivid disaster rather than historical base rates. The avAIlability heuristic is the dominant pricing force: the first named storm of the season spikes subsequent storm markets 20–40%, even when NOAA's seasonal forecast hasn't changed by a single storm. After a major wildfire, every "will X 状态 break a fire record?" market overshoots. After a quiet 启动 to a season, markets underprice the base rate. Two structural edges compound:

AvAIlability bias correction — NOAA, NHC, NIFC, and USGS publish decades of calibrated base rates. Named Atlantic storm counts have 40+ years of forecasting data. Global temperature records are measured to ±0.01°C simultaneously by three independent agencies. The edge is in knowing these numbers when retAIl is trading on vibes and recent memory.

Seasonal data 质量 timing — The 签名al is only actionable when 模型s are actively 运行ning. During hurricane peak season (Aug–Oct), NHC issues advisories every 6 hours and 模型 ensembles 更新 in real time. A named-storm-count market in February is priced on stale pre-season data; the same market in September is priced agAInst dAIly NHC 输出. The edge doubles when real-time data is flowing.

签名al 记录ic Default 签名al: Conviction-Based Sizing with Catastrophe Bias Discover active catastrophe and extreme weather markets on Polymarket Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1) 应用ly catastrophe_bias() — hazard type data 质量 × seasonal calendar timing Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — c应用ed at MAX_POSITION Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution Catastrophe Bias (built-in, no API required)

Factor 1 — Hazard Type / Data 质量

Hazard type Multiplier The structural reality Named storm count / above-normal Atlantic season 1.25x NOAA seasonal outlooks calibrated over 40+ years; above/below-normal ~70% accurate at 90-day lead; retAIl over-reacts after first storm (20–40% spike) Global temperature record (hottest year/month) 1.20x Measured to ±0.01°C by NOAA, Berkeley Earth, NASA GISS simultaneously; trajectory clear months before year-end; retAIl doesn't 检查 Billion-dollar disaster count 1.20x NOAA 追踪s since 1980; trend clearly upward from 命令行工具mate change + expanding insured as设置s; retAIl anchors to average-year intuition Wildfire season severity (acres burned, 状态 records) 1.20x NIFC YTD acres vs 10-year average: strong 2–4 week leading indicator; Palmer drought 索引 leads fires by weeks; data public, 更新d dAIly Major hurricane (Cat 3+) landfall 1.10x NHC 2–5 day 追踪 cone probabilities annually verified; retAIl overprices landfall from visual cone; actual landfall-specific probability far lower Tornado season record / violent outbreak 1.10x SPC seasonal outlook reliable at 3-month 扩展; specific outbreak timing within season harder to predict FEMA disaster declaration 0.85x Political and bureaucratic discretion 添加s real noise beyond meteoro记录ical 签名al Earthquake (M7+, specific region/window) 0.80x Fundamentally unpredictable on quarterly time扩展s; USGS hazard 模型s are long-运行 annual rates Tsunami / volcanic eruption 0.75x Triggered by underlying seismic/geo记录ic 事件 that cannot themselves be predicted; lowest edge in catastrophe markets

The AvAIlability Bias Rule — The first major event of a season 创建s a retAIl pricing spike that is almost always an overreaction. The NOAA seasonal forecast before and after that first storm is essentially unchanged, but the market price jumps 20–40%. Fading these spikes — or, better, entering before them — is the core mechanism of the named storm edge. The base rate, not the headline, is the 签名al.

The Earthquake Exemption — Unlike weather hazards, earthquakes have no seasonal 签名al and no meaningful short-term forecasting capability. USGS can give you a 1-in-500 annual probability for a M7+ event in a specific fault 系统. They cannot tell you if it will h应用en in Q3. Trade earthquake markets at maximum caution (0.80x), and tsunami/volcanic markets at the floor (0.75x).

Factor 2 — Seasonal Calendar Timing

Condition Multiplier Why Atlantic hurricane + Aug–Oct 1.25x NHC issuing dAIly advisories; GFS/ECMWF updating every 6h; data richest Atlantic hurricane + Jun–Jul/Nov 1.10x Active season; storms possible; below peak frequency Atlantic hurricane + Dec–May 0.85x Off-season; no active 系统s; base rate near zero Western wildfire + Jul–Sep 1.20x NIFC dAIly 更新s; drought indices current; red flag warnin