Polymarket Copy Early Mover Trader

Copy Early Mover Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al identifies the single most predictive "lead indicator" whale wallet -- the one that consistently enters markets before other whales follow -- and copies its freshest positions. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (leaderboard scrAPIng, activity fetching, timeline construction, early-mover 检测ion, 签名al 验证). Your 代理 provides the alpha by tuning window and freshness parameters.

Strategy Overview

Not all whale wallets are 创建d equal. Some consistently move first into markets, and other whales follow within hours. This 技能 finds that lead indicator wallet and copies its fresh entries before the herd pushes prices away.

Discover top wallets from the predicting.top leaderboard Fetch recent trade activity for each wallet Build a per-market entry timeline: who entered first, who followed Score each wallet by how often it was the confirmed first mover (lead score) Find fresh positions from the top early mover(s) that haven't been crowded yet 验证 each copy trade agAInst conviction-based thresholds with a lead-score boost 执行 trades on markets where the early mover's direction aligns with the base 签名al The Edge: First-Mover Price Advantage

When a whale enters a market, the price moves. The first whale in 获取s the best price; followers push it further in the same direction. By identifying who tends to move first -- and confirming that followers actually pile in -- this 技能 isolates the most predictive wallet and copies its freshest entries before the crowd.

签名al 记录ic Leaderboard (top N wallets) | v Fetch recent BUY activity per wallet | v Build entry timeline per market: - Group BUY trades by market title - 排序 by timestamp (earliest first) | v For each market: - First entry = early mover candidate - Count followers entering same side within EARLY_WINDOW_HOURS - 追踪 per-wallet lead score (markets led across all 历史) | v 过滤器: followers >= MIN_FOLLOWERS AND entry < FRESHNESS_HOURS old | v Find fresh entries from top early mover(s): - Positions opened very recently by the lead wallet - These are the entries where followers haven't piled in yet | v Match to Simmer markets -> compute_early_mover_签名al: - Base 签名al must align with mover direction - Lead score boost: mult = 1 + min(0.4, lead_score 0.1) - Conviction = min(1.0, base_conviction lead_mult) - Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction MAX_POSITION) | v 执行 trade

Why This Works In格式化ion asymmetry: The first whale into a market often has proprietary in格式化ion or superior analysis. Followers are reacting to the whale's move, not the underlying 签名al. Price impact: Each follower pushes the price further, creating slippage. Being early means 获取ting the pre-impact price. Lead score 验证: A wallet that was first once could be lucky. A wallet that was first in 5+ markets with confirmed followers is a genuine lead indicator. Freshness 过滤器: Only copies positions opened within the last N hours, ensuring the entry price hasn't already been pushed away by followers. Conviction alignment: The early mover's direction must agree with the base conviction 签名al, 预防ing blind copying into overpriced markets. Example 仪表盘 EARLY MOVER 仪表盘 ================================================================ Wallet | LeadScore | MktsLed | AvgFollowers ---------------------------------------------------------------- 0xabc1234567.. | 7 | 4 | 2.5 0xdef8901234.. | 4 | 3 | 1.7 0x567890abcd.. | 2 | 2 | 1.0

Safety 防护 Default What it does Paper mode ON No --live flag = simulated trades, zero risk MAX_POSITION $40 Cap per-trade size MIN_TRADE $5 Floor 预防s trivially small orders MAX_POSITIONS 8 Portfolio-level position limit MAX_SPREAD 10% Skip illiquid markets MIN_DAYS 5 Skip markets resolving too soon MIN_VOLUME $3,000 Skip low-volume markets YES/NO thresholds 0.38/0.62 Only trade within conviction bands EARLY_WINDOW_HOURS 6h How close a follower must enter to confirm the early mover MIN_FOLLOWERS 1 Minimum followers required to 验证 a lead 签名al FRESHNESS_HOURS 48h Only copy positions opened within this window 上下文_ok() ON 预防s exceeding max open positions Tunables

All parameters are configurable via SIMMER_ 环境 variables and the Simmer UI:

Env Var Default Description SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max position size in USD SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Min trade size in USD SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume in USD SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 5 Min days until resolution SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 YES threshold for conviction 过滤器 SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 NO threshold for conviction 过滤器 SIMMER_EARLY_WINDOW_HOURS 6 Hours after first entry to count as follower SIMMER_MIN_FOLLOWERS 1 Min whale f