Polymarket Eth Midcandle

ETH Mid-Candle Scalper 🔥

77%+ win rate. Real money. 400+ trades. ETH's 15-minute markets are even more profitable than BTC's — if you know when to enter. This strategy does. The BTC alignment gate alone 过滤器s out a third of losing trades. Battle-tested, configurable, and 运行ning 24/7.

This is a template. The default 签名al is mid-candle ETH momentum from Binance klines, 过滤器ed by BTC cross-as设置 alignment — remix it with your own data sources, alternate confirmation 签名als, or 添加itional as设置 gates. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, BTC/ETH data fetching, execution, safe防护s). Your tuning provides the alpha.

What It Does

ETH Up/Down markets on Polymarket close every 15 minutes. This strategy wAIts until the candle has shown its hand — typically 2–12 minutes remAIning — and only enters when:

ETH momentum is clear: 5m and 3m price change 机器人h agree on direction BTC agrees: BTC isn't moving hard agAInst you (cross-as设置 alignment 检查) Volume confirms: The move is backed by real activity, not noise Entry price is fAIr: Not too cheap (contrarian) or too expensive (overpriced)

Why BTC alignment matters: ETH and BTC are heavily correlated. When ETH is 签名aling UP but BTC is dumping 0.3%, you're fighting the tide — and you'll lose. The BTC gate eliminates that class of trade entirely.

The 结果: 77%+ win rate on real money. Out of the box.

⚠️ 导入ant: The defaults are calibrated to produce edge, but you need to 调优 them. Different account sizes, different risk tolerances, different times of day all affect optimal 设置tings. The tuning 图形界面de below tells you exactly what to adjust and why. A 调优d strategy beats a default strategy every time.

设置up

• 安装

ClawHub 安装 polymarket-eth-midcandle

设置 your API key:

导出 SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_your_key_here

• 配置 your 代理 ID

python eth_midcandle.py --设置 poly_代理_id=your_代理_id_here

Find your 代理 ID at simmer.markets/仪表盘 → 代理s.

• Paper trade first

python eth_midcandle.py

You'll see [PAPER MODE] — no real money. 运行 this for at least a day to understand when it fires and why.

• Go live

python eth_midcandle.py --live

• 设置 up cron

crontab -e

添加:

3,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,53,58 cd /path/to/技能 && python eth_midcandle.py --live >> /var/记录/eth-midcandle.记录 2>&1

运行s every 5 minutes, staggered for best execution timing.

Configuration python eth_midcandle.py --config python eth_midcandle.py --设置 momentum_threshold=0.0012

Parameter Env Var Default Description poly_代理_id SIMMER_ETHMC_代理_ID — Your Polymarket 代理 ID (required) bet_size SIMMER_ETHMC_BET_SIZE 5.0 USDC per trade momentum_threshold SIMMER_ETHMC_THRESHOLD 0.0012 Min 5m ETH price change (0.12%) btc_gate_threshold SIMMER_ETHMC_BTC_GATE 0.0015 BTC move required to veto trade (0.15%) min_volume_ratio SIMMER_ETHMC_VOL_RATIO 1.1 Volume vs 2h avg (0 = disabled) min_entry_price SIMMER_ETHMC_MIN_ENTRY 0.45 Min entry price per side max_entry_price SIMMER_ETHMC_MAX_ENTRY 0.65 Max entry price per side enable_1m_confirm SIMMER_ETHMC_1M_CONFIRM false Require 1m candle to confirm direction skip_hours SIMMER_ETHMC_SKIP_HOURS 13,17 UTC hours to skip (historically poor WR) discord_网页hook SIMMER_ETHMC_网页HOOK "" Discord alert 网页hook (optional) max_position_usd SIMMER_ETHMC_MAX_POS 50.0 Max USDC per trade when using --smart-sizing sizing_pct SIMMER_ETHMC_SIZING_PCT 0.03 Portfolio % per trade when using --smart-sizing (3%)

⚠️ SKIP HOURS — READ THIS BEFORE TRADING

By default, the strategy skips hour 13 UTC (9am ET) and hour 17 UTC (1pm ET). These hours have a historically poor ETH midcandle win rate — sub-45%, meaning you lose money on average.

Hour 13 UTC (9am ET): NY open volatility makes ETH momentum 签名als unreliable. Sharp reversals are common. Hour 17 UTC (1pm ET): Post-lunch chop. Random, low-conviction price action that fakes out momentum 签名als.

Do NOT 移除 these skip hours unless you have your own data (50+ trades minimum) showing profitability during those hours. The default skip 列出 exists because real money was lost learning this lesson.

To modify: python eth_midcandle.py --设置 skip_hours=13,17,21 (添加 hours) or --设置 skip_hours= (disable — not recommended).

Tuning 图形界面de

The defaults work. Tuning makes them work better for you specifically.

Momentum threshold (momentum_threshold)

How much ETH must move in 5 minutes before you enter.

Lower (0.0008–0.0012): More trades. Good when ETH is in a clear trend. Higher (0.0018–0.0025): Only trade strong moves. Better in choppy or sideways conditions. 启动 at default (0.0012) and only adjust after 50+ paper trades. BTC alignment gate (btc_gate_threshold)

The BTC 5m move that triggers a veto.

Lower (0.0010): Stricter BTC 过滤器 — vetoes more trades when BTC wiggles Higher (0.0020–0.0025): Only veto when BTC is moving hard — allows more ETH-independent trades Default (0.0015) is the sweet spot: vetoes divergent trades without over-过滤器ing Volume ratio