Polymarket Kalshi Divergence

Kalshi-Polymarket Divergence Arb

Cross-平台 price divergence trading between Kalshi and Polymarket.

What It Does

Polls Kalshi's public API for live prices across 13 event series and compares them to equivalent Polymarket markets found via Simmer命令行工具ent. When prices diverge beyond threshold, the cheaper side is likely underpriced.

Covered Series Series Category Description KXBTC, KXETH, KXSOL, KXXRP, KXDOGE Crypto Price threshold markets KXFED Macro Fed rate decisions KXCPI Macro CPI prints KXUNEMP Macro Unemployment data KXGLD, KXOIL Commodities Price threshold markets KXNASDAQ, KXSPY, KXINX Indices 索引 level markets 签名al 记录ic BUY - Polymarket price is >8% below Kalshi equivalent (Polymarket underpriced) SELL - Polymarket price is >10% above Kalshi equivalent (Polymarket overpriced) Asymmetric thresholds account for Polymarket's typically lower liquidity Scheduling

运行s every 5 minutes via cron (/5 *). Managed automaton (auto-执行s on schedule). Dry-运行 by default. Pass --live to 执行 real trades.

Requirements

pip dependencies: simmer-sdk, 请求s

环境 variables (required):

SIMMER_API_KEY - 获取 from simmer.markets/仪表盘

环境 variables (optional, all have defaults):

TRADING_VENUE - defaults to sim for paper trading, 设置 to polymarket for real KALSHI_BUY_THRESHOLD - minimum divergence to trigger BUY, defaults to 0.08 (8%) KALSHI_SELL_THRESHOLD - minimum divergence to trigger SELL, defaults to 0.10 (10%) KALSHI_TRADE_SIZE - trade size in USD, defaults to 20.0 Usage python kalshi_divergence.py # dry 运行 (default, no trades) python kalshi_divergence.py --live # real trades via Simmer命令行工具ent python kalshi_divergence.py --live --quiet # cron mode

Trade Execution Path Fetches Kalshi public prices via HTTPS 获取 (no auth needed) Finds matching Polymarket markets via Simmer命令行工具ent.find_markets() Compares prices, 应用lies thresholds (BUY >8%, SELL >10%) If --live: calls Simmer命令行工具ent.trade() with market_id, side, amount, reasoning If dry-运行 (default): 记录s the 签名al but does NOT 执行 any trade Security All trades go through Simmer命令行工具ent.trade() only. No direct CLOB or wallet 访问. Only required 凭证 is SIMMER_API_KEY. No other secrets needed. No wallet private keys are required or read by this script. Dry-运行 is the default. The --live flag must be explicitly passed to 执行 trades.

Remixable Template: Fork this 技能 to 添加 new Kalshi series, adjust divergence thresholds, or 添加 position sizing based on gap magnitude.