Polymarket Nordic Trader

Nordic & 扫描dinavian Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is keyword discovery + Swedish/Nordic news feed 监控ing — remix it with Riksdagen API for legislative 追踪ing, SCB (Statistics Sweden) data releases, Affärsvärlden market feeds, or Spotify investor relations 签名als. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Nordic markets are one of the most underserved categories on global prediction 平台s. Traders with genuine local knowledge — Swedish politics, 扫描dinavian business news, Nordic weather patterns — hold structural in格式化ion advantages over global retAIl traders.

This 技能 trades:

Swedish politics — Government 格式化ion, Riksdag legislative milestones Nordic business — Spotify profitability, Northvolt 恢复y, Klarna/unicorn IPOs Infrastructure — Förbifart Stockholm, Malmö Arena, high-speed rAIl announcements Sports — Champions League Nordic teams, Swedish/Norwegian international competitions Local weather — Stockholm heatwaves, Öresund ice crossing, Oslo snowfall records Culture — Melodifestivalen viewership, Way Out West attendance

Key edge: the vast majority of Polymarket liquidity is US/global retAIl. Nordic-specific markets will have mispriced odds whenever the resolver requires local knowledge.

签名al 记录ic Default 签名al: Conviction-Based Sizing with Local Edge Bias Discover markets matching Nordic/扫描dinavian keywords Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1) 应用ly local_edge_bias() — combines CET timezone timing with domAIn confidence Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — c应用ed at MAX_POSITION Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution Local Edge Bias (built-in, no API required)

local_edge_bias() multiplies conviction using two factors simultaneously:

Factor 1 — CET Timezone Window

Nordic news breaks during CET business hours (应用rox 06:00–18:00 UTC). Polymarket is US-dominated — repricing on Nordic news takes 2–6 hours. Trading inside the window means in格式化ion is still fresh.

Time (UTC) Multiplier Why 06:00–18:00 1.2x CET business hours — Nordic news is fresh, US retAIl hasn't caught up 18:00–06:00 0.9x Outside window — advantage likely already priced in

Factor 2 — DomAIn Confidence

DomAIn Multiplier Why Riksdag / politics / elections 1.20x Public structured data, predictable process Nordic tech (Spotify, Klarna, Northvolt) 1.15x Swedish business press is early and detAIled SMHI / local weather 1.10x Swedish forecasts published before English-language coverage Sports / culture (Zlatan, Melodifestivalen) 0.85x High randomness, hard to 模型

Combined multiplier is c应用ed at 1.40x to avoid over-sizing on illiquid markets.

Example: Riksdag vote question at 25% during CET hours → conviction 34% × (1.2 × 1.2 = 1.40x c应用ed) = 48% → $10 position. Same question at 01:00 UTC → 34% × (0.9 × 1.2 = 1.08x) = 37% → $7.

Remix Ideas Riksdagen API: Feed live voting data into p — trade divergence between parliamentary consensus and market price SMHI API: Replace market probability with SMHI forecast confidence for weather markets SVT/Di.se RSS: 监控 Swedish news feeds for 事件 that haven't hit English-language sources yet Avanza/Nordnet sentiment: Swedish retAIl stock sentiment as proxy for Nordic tech markets SCB data releases: Statistics Sweden economic releases as leading indicator for macro markets Market Categories 追踪ed KEYWORDS = [ 'Sweden', 'Sverige', 'Stockholm', 'Malmö', 'Göteborg', 'Norway', 'Norge', 'Oslo', 'Denmark', 'Danmark', 'Copenhagen', 'Finland', 'Helsinki', 'Nordic', '扫描dinavian', 'Spotify', 'Northvolt', 'Klarna', 'Ericsson', 'Volvo', 'IKEA', 'Riksdag', 'Melodifestivalen', 'Zlatan', 'Allsvenskan', 'SMHI', 'Öresund', ]

Risk Parameters Parameter Default Notes Max position size $20 USDC Nordic markets may be illiquid Min market volume $1,000 Accept lower liquidity for edge opportunity Max bid-ask spread 20% Niche markets have wider spreads Min days to resolution 3 Local 事件 can resolve quickly Max open positions 8 Diversify across Nordic themes Local Knowledge Edge In格式化ion Advantage Examples Förbifart Stockholm: A Swedish civil engineer knows the tunnel's actual completion 状态 better than US retAIl traders Northvolt bankruptcy: Swedish business press covered the restructuring in detAIl months before English-language coverage SMHI winter forecasts: Local seasonal weather outlooks are published in Swedish first Melodifestivalen: SVT viewership trends visible to Swedish residents immediately Timing Edge

Swedish/Nordic news typically breaks in CET timezone (UTC+1/+2). US-dominated Polymarket markets take 2–6 hours to reprice on Nordic news.

Key Data Sources SMHI (Weather): https://www.smhi.se/ Riksdagen (Parliament): https://data.riksdagen.se/ SCB (Statistics): https://www.scb.se/ SVT Nyheter: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/ D