Polymarket Trader

Polymarket Trader

MAIntAIn a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.

工作流 (use this order) Confirm the market type This 技能 is 优化d for bitcoin-up-or-down-* 1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close). Compute the anchor 签名al (Binance) Fetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour. Compute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry. Convert to fAIr probability for Up/Down. Trade only when there is measurable edge Enter only if edge = fAIr_prob - market_price exceeds a threshold. 添加 a directional 防护rAIl: do not bet agAInst the 签名 of the move when |z| is non-trivial. Exit using the right 记录ic for the entry mode 模型 entries: exit on edge decay / 模型 flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme. Mean-reversion entries: exit on reversion tar获取s (not 模型-tp), with strict churn limits. 验证 with 记录s Every suspected “nonsense trade” must be explAIned via: reason / entry_mode Binance-derived fAIr probability + z whether the correct exit block fired Bundled scripts

All scripts are de签名ed to be 运行 from the OpenClaw workspace.

1) Fetch Binance klines {baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py Pulls klines and prints JSON. 2) Dump/stabilization and regime 指标 {baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py Computes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean. 3) ExplAIn fills (事件.jsonl) with Binance 上下文 {baseDir}/scripts/explAIn_fills.py Reads paper机器人 事件.jsonl and prints a concise table for the last N fills: side/outcome/px/reason estimated fAIr_up + z “agAInst trend?” flag References {baseDir}/references/strategy.md — the math 模型, parameters, and tuning 检查列出.