Polymarket Twitter Bin Decay Trader

Twitter Bin Decay Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al estimates posts-so-far from elapsed time and dAIly rate — remix it with real-time post counting via Twitter API, Social Blade 抓取器s, or Polymarket order flow analysis. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As a posting period 进度es, bins become mathematically eliminable. If Elon has estimated ~130 tweets after 2 of 3 days, the "40-64" bin is dead — but it might still trade at 5-10% because the market is slow to 更新.

This 技能 追踪s the elapsed fraction of each market's period and computes which bins are still viable, which are dead, and which are on-trajectory.

签名al 记录ic Viability Computation 解析 启动/end dates from market question Compute elapsed_fraction = (now - 启动) / (end - 启动) Estimate posts_so_far = elapsed_fraction dAIly_rate period_days Calculate reachable range: max_total = posts_so_far + max_dAIly_rate remAIning_days min_total = posts_so_far + 0.3 dAIly_rate * remAIning_days If bin_lower > max_total → bin is dead (unreachable) If bin_upper < min_total → bin is dead (already surpassed) Max DAIly Rates (Historical Extremes) Person Avg DAIly Max DAIly Notes Elon Musk 65 120 Thread storms can 2x rate Donald Trump 23 50 Rally days spike Vitalik 8 20 Conference days CZ 12 30 Exchange drama days Trading Dead Bins Dead bin priced >62% → strong NO 签名al (sell the corpse) Viable bin priced <38% and on-trajectory → YES 签名al (buy the survivor) Conviction 扩展s with 机器人h threshold distance AND viability confidence Remix Ideas Real-time post counting: Replace estimation with actual count from Twitter API Velocity 追踪ing: 追踪 rate changes within the period (accelerating vs decelerating) Multi-bin portfolio: Short dead bins and long viable bins simultaneously for hedge Risk Parameters Parameter Default Notes Max position size $40 USDC Per market Min market volume $1,000 Standard 过滤器 Max bid-ask spread 10% Default threshold Min days to resolution 0 Post-count markets are short-lived Max open positions 8 Diversify across bins 安装ation & 设置up ClawHub 安装 polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY 环境 variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is 设置 to null — the 技能 does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only 执行 when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

The automaton cron is 设置 to null — it does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI. auto启动: false means it won't 启动 automatically on 安装.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority — keep this 凭证 private. Do not place a live-capable key in any 环境 where automated code could call --live. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in ClawHub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so 应用ly_技能_config() can load them 安全ly.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 1000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until market resolves SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES if market price ≤ this value SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO if market price ≥ this value SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live 凭证s if you require full 审计ability.